From FoxNews:
A top Trump economic advisor is projecting a surge in U.S. growth, saying the country could see GDP expansion greater than even 6% amid a capital spending boom, particularly if the conflict in Iran ends soon.
“I think we really could be looking at numbers north of four, north of five, north of even six [percent], because there’s so much capital stock growth right now,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told “Sunday Morning Futures.”
Hassett elaborated on the acceleration in capital spending, noting that investment jumped 3.3% in March alone, not at an annualized rate.
It’s unclear what time period Hassett is referring to. According to the FY2027 Budget, the 2026 q4/q4 growth rate was projected to run 3.4%, dropping down to 3.1% in 2027 and subsequent years (pre-War). Here’s a picture of Hassett’s (conditional) prediction, assuming the official 2026 forecast, and 5% thereafter.
Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), Administration’s FY2027 Budget forecast (red squares), WSJ April survey mean (blue), Hassett 5% growth in 2027 (teal triangle), +/- 1 standard error band (light gray lines). Source: BEA, WSJ April survey, author’s calculations.
Reposted from below:
Kevin Hassett blames Jay Powell for “creating political conflicts that are different from the charge of the Fed” and claims, “the inspector general of the Fed is investigating the building situation, so it’s not like the White House is disrespecting the independence of the Fed”.
Hassett has to be a clinical psychopath to look directly into the camera and lie this effortlessly.
And that villainous rictus grin while he is doing it is really creepy.
Hassett isn’t the only one:
“This quarter — the first quarter of 2026 — the United States of America’s $30 trillion economy will exceed 5% growth,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Fox Business on Wednesday, speaking from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. By the end of 2026, he added, “You’re going to see 6% growth from the United States of America.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-officials-predict-2026-economic-boom/
The reported pace of Q1 growth, corrected for inflation, was 2.0%. Without correcting for inflation, growth was 5.6%. Ta Da!!! Growth above 5%! Lutnick knows enough to appreciate the difference, and is cynical enough to blur the distinction.
Nor is this Hassett’s first time making nonsensical promises about growth. While auditioning to become CEA director in 2017, he said persistent 3% growth could be had by following the economic wisdom of the felon-in-chief:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/06/trump-nominee-kevin-hassett-says-3-percent-growth-can-happen-with-changes.html
That growth would come from labor force growth, capital investment and technological efficiency (translation: productivity), according to Hassett. Only in 2018 did growth reach 3%. Real fixed non-residential capital investment was not particularly fast during the first felon administration:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1W8PD
Labor force growth during felon I was some of the slowest on record:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1W8PX
Productivity growth was below average:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1W8Qr
The budget deficit widened substantially during the first felon administration, but even that wasn’t enough to achieve a steady 3% rate of real growth.
One suspects Hassett has his current job BECAUSE he says nonsensical things about growth, tax cuts and the felon-in-chief.
AI is going to be a problem. If big companies choose to apply AI as a tool to increase profits, it is going to result in a race to the bottom. every company is going to increase AI usage while they cut employment, to extract as much profit as possible from society. see block as an example. but a society that is driven by pure profit has no place for humans. unless the government stears a policy that mitigates this risk, count me in the crowd that is now quite concerned about AI. it can be helpful for productivity, but if companies are given free reign on its usage, I see dark times ahead. we now have schools with no teachers, just AI agents. person to person interaction is becoming devalued as we speak.
responsible deployment of AI is necessary.
AI? Funnny you should mention that:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-11/retail-floods-into-silly-chipmaker-rally-as-moves-get-extreme
Professional investors worry whence amateur investors turn heavily to a given asset. Whether history or professional ego is the main driver, I couldn’t say, but amateurs are now grabbing up AI shares.
With inflation going up a *nominal* GDP growth of 6% is definitely possible (even if there’s are recession).