From Kalshi, 7:45pm CT:
The fact that the odds keep on jumping up and down is befuddling. It is clear tht Iran “holds the cards” (to use a Trumpism), and Trump himself is incapable of admitting he has put himself (or more precisely, the US) in a situation that is unambiguously worse than the staus quo ante (i.e., open navigation of the Strait, Brent at $70/bbl, and a much larger stock of PGMs and interceptors). Hence, my prediction for April 2027.
One can disagree: we saw that it is Trump who holds all the cards. Just it is the game where you have to get rid of the cards.
Trump, probably, still believes that he can turn war on or off like a switch, so he is not concerned enough.
Iran would not accept a deal in which it would not get something valuable unless the regime is really about to collapse – that’s for sure.
So, I’d agree that everything looks like this shitshow it to continue for months I just could not come past the joke about holding all the cards.