Bloomberg consensus for tomorrow’s release of April real consumption is for flat growth.

Figure 1: Household net worth, end-of-quarter, in bn.Ch.2017$ (blue square, left log scale), consumption (red, log right scale), Bloomberg consensus implied (red +), and personal income ex-transfers (teal, right log scale), Bloomberg consensus implied (teal triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Assumes personal income ex-transfers grows at same pace as income. 2026Q1 net worth extrapolated using SP500 price. Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, BEA via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

Note that net worth looks flat in Q3, but that’s because of the March dip. As of today, the SP500 is 13% above the average March value.

I don’t have an answer, but even if net worth continues to rise, the question stands.