Over the past year, as of data available today:
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com.
30 year mortgage rate up 0.69 ppts since the eve of the US-Iran war.
Figure 1: Gasoline price (blue), and diesel price (red), weekly average of daily data, both $/gallon, on log scale. Source: EIA via FRED.
Gasoline prices are up 52.7% relative to the week ending 2/23, before the War’s start on 2/28.
not to brag, but I recently refinanced from 7.25% to 5.5%, while trading in a premium gas guzzling suv for an EV at $0.12 per kWh. lucky timing really. it’s been tough to navigate the trump economy. if I had dilly dallied for another month, results would have been a bit different.
Tangentially on topic – there may be a particular reason the war-criminal-in-chief’s latest “Wolf!” turned TACO, beyond the usual cycle of chest-thumping impotence: Iran is ready to close down Bab el-Mandeb if we resume our attacks:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/entertainment/bollywood/after-hormuz-irgc-to-choke-bab-el-mandeb-next-big-warning-issued-watch/vi-AA23kFFH
The Times of India had the story 3 days ago, the NYT only a day ago:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/18/world/middleeast/iran-war-retaliation-options.html
There are also reports of Iranian military officers in Yemen near Bab el-Mandeb:
https://www.albawaba.com/news/iranian-military-officers-deployed-near-1627889
Bab el-Mandeb carries roughly 10% of seaborne oil trade in normal times. If it closes, the 20% cut in oil supply due to Bibi’s war of choice in Iran rises to something like a 30% cut. That would probably hurt.
As a bonus, closure of Bab el-Mandeb would force ocean trade between Asia and Europe to sail around Africa rather than through the Red Sea. Like the physical scarcity of oil, closure of Red Sea shipping wouldn’t hurt the U.S. much, but would cost other parts of the world a great deal, so it’s nice of the war criminal to avoid this escalation.
By the way, China’s slowdown is continuing:
https://www.ibtimes.com/china-retail-sales-sink-weakest-growth-since-2022-3802985
I’ve seen a bit of China-triumphalism in commentary lately (not here), but I can’t find any substance to back it up. China’s real estate/credit/oversupply/household consumption problem has been complicated by the oil shortage, not remedied. The April slowdown is right on time, given the oil shortage. The fact that forecasters had expected better data may simply reflect the difficulty of forecasting right now.
We now return to our regularly-scheduled horror and disgust at the felon-in-chief’s war of choice.