As of the 2026Q1 3rd release:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDI (red), GDO (blue), GDP+ growth iterated on 2022Q2 GDP (green), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2026Q1 3rd release, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
GDO is growing more slowly than GDP (1.4% vs. 1.6% q/q AR; 2.4% vs. 2.5% y/y).
Off topic – There is an established record of tobacco and fossil fuel companies withholding scientific evidence of the harms done by their products, and of financing “alternative research” to muddy public discussion. You might expect that, once uncovered, this behavior would stop. But of course, it never did:
https://www.propublica.org/article/wedges-climate-research-bp-fossil-fuel-princeton
BP paid for a study of climate change solutions by two Princeton faculty that turn out to be a huge hit. That study has been cited over 3,000 times. Al gore swallowed the hype, citing it in his movie. Turn out, there were some wee falsifications, exaggerations and unfounded conclusions.
The study, entitled “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years Using Current Technology” took the position that combining a variety of approches, with heavy emphasis on carbon capture, would allow continued burning of fossil fuels with manageable climate effects. Policy has been shaped by that conclusion.
Funny.
Mediterranean water temperature is 13 degrees Fahrenheit above average, and we don’t yet have the carbon capture technology that the “Wedges” authors claimed was current technology 22 years ago. Another bit of anti-warming tech, nuclear power generation, has a hitch in parts of Europe right now, because river water is too hot to adequately cool reactors; one has been shut down and others are throttling back, perhaps also to be shut down. Oh, and strong drought conditions have reduced hydro-electric output. Meanwhile, the granddaddy of El Niño conditions has arrived in the upper atmosphere of North America and the pressnis trotting out “how to survive extreme heat” stories.
So funny.