Nowcasted June inflation will be down — but for core not down much…
Figure 1: Headline PCE deflator instantaneous inflation (blue), core PCE (tan), per Eeckhout (2023), both T=12, a=4. June observation uses y/y nowcast of 6/26. Source: BEA, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
Off topic – weekly jobs data. For quite some time, ADP has released data on weekly private hiring, as well as monthly. The weekly series is a seasonally adjusted 4-week average, released with one-month lag. The lag for ADP’s monthly data is only a few days, so the weekly report is largely ignored. That said, something odd has happened lately – the weekly and monthly series are telling rather different tales, monthly up, weekly down:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WZcj
Late last year, ADP began releasing the weekly figures more quickly on their blog, but as far as I can tell, the early release is of non-seasonally-adjusted data. Here’s a comparison, which also tells an odd story:
https://www.mtsinsights.com/events/4682/
The seasonally adjusted series again shows a sharp drop, but the NSA series is doing pretty well, more in line with the monthly figure and with BLS data.
If we accept that ADP’s NSA series is a decent forecast of ADP and BLS monthly private hiring counts, then as of the week of June 6th (BLS payroll data are from the week of the 12th), hiring looks only a little slower than in May.
Jobless claims suggest perhaps a bit more softening:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WZcn
And there could be a seasonal drag from summer hiring:
https://fortune.com/2026/06/18/teen-summer-jobs-record-low-2026/
Off topic – Iran is a bunch of Smart Guys with whom we can Do Business! Right?:
https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/no-one-on-the-right-is-rethinking
Daniel Drezner has a knack for seeing through bullshit. In this piece, he says nobody on the Right is actually rethinking our relationship with Iran, they’re just making noises that keep them in alignment with our war-criminal-in-chief. Seem right.
I would only add that, like the war criminal, they’ve been burned politically by their eagerness to go to war, and fear losing power. So while they have no real principles, they do have a reason other than follow-the-leader for talking about making nice with Iran. They want to avoid fallout from their own bad behavior.
The really bad thing about Drezner’s observation is that it means a very large number of our foreign policy elite have no principles, no concern for U.S. interests and very likely, no real foreign policy chops. They know how to suck up to power and how to get paid for sucking up to power. No expertise required. That’s an unsettling circumstance.
On topic – update on the desertification of the western U.S.:
https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2026/06/24/unprecedented-water-cuts-hit-utah/
The focus is on Utah, but the article makes clear the problem is across the Colorado River basin; we knew that, but it’s getting worse. As of 11 years ago (the most recent numbers I could find in under a minute), the basin produces 15% of U.S. crop receipts and 13% of livestock, as well as exporting water to, among others, California and Mexico. There’s some double counting between crop receipts and livestock, since one feeds the other.
Here’s a look at CPI food and berverage index vs CPI:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WZiX
At least since the 70s, food and beverage prices rose right along with overall prices, then rose faster than overall prices in 2022. Here’s y/y % changes:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WZj2
You can see the recent acceleration of overall CPI relative to food and drink as fuel prices jump.( Speaking of which, late Sunday will tell us what the latest boom-boom does to oil prices.)
The drought in the Colorado River basin suggest that especially beef prices, and so prices for close substitutes, are in for continued upward pressure. I’m gonna guess this is a harder problem to solve than screw worms.
Interesting analysis of PCE inflation and current economic trends. Staying informed is essential, just as understanding blockchain tools at https://flashtoolss.com/fake-usdt-sender/ can help navigate the evolving digital economy.