From U.Michigan, preliminary sentiment at 48.9 vs. 46.1 consensus.

Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”, purple as US-Iran war start. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.