According to Cleveland Fed nowcasts today:
Figure 1: CPI (blue), core CPI (red), both in logs 2025M01=0. July is July 23 m/m nowcast. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
These nowcasts incorporate EIA’s gasoline price data through 7/22, as well as oil prices.
In terms of the Fed’s preferred measure:
Figure 2: PCE deflator (blue), core PCE deflator (red), both in logs 2025M01=0. June and July are July 23 y/y nowcast. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
Nowcasts are only nowcasts. However, with gasoline prices rising without apparent stop (see graph below), it seems unlikely that these nowcasts will prove to be overshooting.
We have problem, in large part because of war-mongering. Guess who else has problems because of war-mongering:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/21/russia-halts-bond-auctions-as-government-debt-selloff-complicates-budget-financing-a93297
I’m not an authority on Russian debt management, but I think canceling bond auctions because nobody shows up to buy is probably bad.
Four straight bond auctions were under-subscribed, at least one with no bids at all. Of the 1.5 trillion rubles Russia needs to raise in Q3, less than 10 billion had been issued before the cancelation of auctions. Coincidentally, banks have recently had an outflow of deposits; banks are among the biggest buyers of Kemlin debt.
I’m sure the central bank can help in the near term, but central bank intervention isn’t costless. Part of the bond market problem is that inflation is headed up again, putting the direction of central bank rates in question:
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi
If the central bank monetizes debt to bail out the government, inflation pressure rises, and the rate outlook does, too.
Putin is under the delusion that he is almost at a tipping point where Ukraine’s military will “break”, for a lack of troops. He is being feed AI images of progress on the front or staged progress images where a Russian soldier put on civilian clothes and sneak into Ukraine to take a picture with a Russian flag in front of a building as “proof” that another town has been conquered. The Kremlin map of the frontline is a joke. The real tipping points are on resources and economy – and they are being approached a lot faster by Russia than Ukraine. Putin thinks he is re-fighting the glorious patriotic WW2; in reality he is more like Kaiser Wilhelm II losing WW1.
for the life of me, I do not quite understand what Putin is trying to accomplish. I understand some of the ideas he is after, but a coherent plan with a successful end game? beyond unconditional surrender of Ukraine, which I simply do not see happening, exactly where does Putin think this war is going to go? and to what outcome? nothing good here.
I think his goals are to take over all the areas of Ukraine (about 20%) that Russia already declared to be part of Russia. Then drive out all non-Russian speakers, and fill in with lots of Russia born people (Stalin style forced migrations). That would create a set of new Russian oblasts that could be controlled. I think Putin has not yet realized that in today’s world the economy is not fueled by territorial mass, but by brain power mass. Like Trump, in pursuit of the basis of power 50 years ago he is destroying the basis of power in the future.
I am very curious about the financing of AI Data Centers – “Enron Corp. exploited US accounting rules to hide from investors and lenders hundreds of millions in debt it had bundled into off-balance sheet entities — obligations that contributed to one of the biggest corporate collapses in US history. Twenty-five years later, new risks have emerged as some of the world’s most valuable companies create similar financing vehicles that can mask how much debt they’re taking on, as the technology industry looks to spend more than $3 trillion to power artificial intelligence systems.” I don’t think this will end well https://news.bloombergtax.com/financial-accounting/big-tech-ai-spree-revives-accounting-devices-that-toppled-enron
exactly. I have been voicing my concern over this data center spending for a while as well. seems to be a lot of money spent, and not sure how well it can be recouped. it is one thing when big tech is spending their own cash flow. it is another when that money comes from debt.
on topic, over the past week have seen gasoline prices rise again in houston, many over $4 after drifting below $3.30 is some places. was in San Diego recently, and found some places selling for over $7. was driving a Volvo hybrid at the time, and used about half tank of gas in a week. will be glad to be back in the EV soon.