3 thoughts on “Current Betting on Re-Opening by 9/1”
baffling
I guess one important question is what is normal? I think irregardless of whether there continues to be a physical threat to the ships going forward, there will be a reduction in the amount of product flowing through the strait. there will be plenty of people who do not think it is worth the hassle of dealing with the uncertainty, even if they are not sinking ships. so there could be a return to some flow of oil, but I am not sure it will be at the levels previously. plenty of ship owners will not want to risk locking the expensive asset in the gulf for extended periods of time. that is a money losing venture even if the ship remains unscathed.
Optimistic but Sceptic
This would mean US, China and others will have to keep using oil reserves if they want below $100 oil.
Using the floating stock from Russia and then Iran (250M-300M) has also help to keep the price low (and helps these adversaries raise money for their regime). Trump prioritized lower oil costs over geopolitics here.
The oil buffer will end as some point if Hormuz doesn’t get back to 70% of previous flows, and oil prices will have to rise.
Macroduck
Yep.
I’m not a fan of a saying the crowd is dumber than some particular pundit. That said, the general assumption reflected in the price of oil seems to be that either the war-criminal-in-chief or Iran’s theocratic bullies will realize that the world needs a compromise, so they’ll agree to compromise. Given the two parties involved, I don’t see why that would be the odds-on bet..
I guess one important question is what is normal? I think irregardless of whether there continues to be a physical threat to the ships going forward, there will be a reduction in the amount of product flowing through the strait. there will be plenty of people who do not think it is worth the hassle of dealing with the uncertainty, even if they are not sinking ships. so there could be a return to some flow of oil, but I am not sure it will be at the levels previously. plenty of ship owners will not want to risk locking the expensive asset in the gulf for extended periods of time. that is a money losing venture even if the ship remains unscathed.
This would mean US, China and others will have to keep using oil reserves if they want below $100 oil.
Using the floating stock from Russia and then Iran (250M-300M) has also help to keep the price low (and helps these adversaries raise money for their regime). Trump prioritized lower oil costs over geopolitics here.
The oil buffer will end as some point if Hormuz doesn’t get back to 70% of previous flows, and oil prices will have to rise.
Yep.
I’m not a fan of a saying the crowd is dumber than some particular pundit. That said, the general assumption reflected in the price of oil seems to be that either the war-criminal-in-chief or Iran’s theocratic bullies will realize that the world needs a compromise, so they’ll agree to compromise. Given the two parties involved, I don’t see why that would be the odds-on bet..