Oil futures jumped on Friday, presumably will again today — but with refining capacity down, the number(s) to watch might be for refined products (given damage to refineries especially in Russia). Here’s Brent futures (black line) vs NY Harbor RBOB gasoline (brown line), for September:
Gasbuddy indicates average price at 3.96 today, slightly down from two days ago — but beware the seasonality (Sundays typically low).
Additional discussion oil vs. refined products in Economist.
As I understand it, there’s a risk to the oil storage infrastructure if stocks persistently fall below 20 million barrels. Looks like we’ve been banging right around that 20 million barrel threshold for several weeks now:
https://freerangestats.info/blog/2026/07/09/cushing
Last week’s number was ever so slightly above 20 million barrels.
2slugbaits: See also EIA.
As of Wednesday, Houthis are warning of a two-front assault, both against Red Sea shipping and against Saudi infrastructure:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-tells-houthis-close-red-sea-gateway-if-us-hits-power-network-sources-say-2026-07-16/
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/yemens-houthis-warn-saudi-arabia-053337146.html
Both threats are contingent. If the U.S./Israel attack Iran’s power grid, the Houthis will attack shipping. If Saudi Arabia attacks Yemeni infrastructure, the Houthis will attack Saudi infrastructure.
If successful, such attacks would represent a major escalation in the oil war. About 70% of Saudi oil exports currently go through the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia is taking the threat seriously, and just ordered 20,000 “drone swatter” Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems from BAE.