Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Refined Products Prices Rising, Again
At least through Monday.
2 thoughts on “Refined Products Prices Rising, Again”
pgl
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
Could someone please remind little EJ Antoni that GDP/M2 aka velocity is not constant? Check out his Twitter to see why I ask. And please tell Koptis that it is not mean reverting around 1.2.
Macroduck
Not constant and not mean-reverting. Also, there was this Great Moderation episode, which was characterized by a huge change in the relationship between velocity and both growth and inflation:
Since the Moderation, velocity and growth-and-inflation seem to vary together mostly during recessions and immediately after, but not during expansions. Maybe some third factor – spending, perhaps – is driving the whole thing?
I haven’t checked little Antoni’s twitface account. I just can’t – life is bad enough without chasing stupid.
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
Could someone please remind little EJ Antoni that GDP/M2 aka velocity is not constant? Check out his Twitter to see why I ask. And please tell Koptis that it is not mean reverting around 1.2.
Not constant and not mean-reverting. Also, there was this Great Moderation episode, which was characterized by a huge change in the relationship between velocity and both growth and inflation:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XMjx
Since the Moderation, velocity and growth-and-inflation seem to vary together mostly during recessions and immediately after, but not during expansions. Maybe some third factor – spending, perhaps – is driving the whole thing?
I haven’t checked little Antoni’s twitface account. I just can’t – life is bad enough without chasing stupid.