From the ADP release:
Figure 1: Change in manufacturing employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue), preliminary benchmark revision from BLS (light blue square), from ADP (green). Orange shading denotes post-Liberation Day period. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations.
Private NFP doesn’t show a dropoff, but growth didn’t match expectations (+38K vs. +47K Bloomberg consensus):
Figure 2: Change in private nonfarm payroll employment since 2025M01 from BLS (blue), Bloomberg consensus (blue +), preliminary benchmark revision from BLS (light blue square), from ADP (green). Orange shading denotes post-Liberation Day period. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, BLS, Bloomberg 8/28, and author’s calculations.
Team Trump keeps telling us we have a boom in manufacturing employment. I guess one has to have a microscope that focuses only on that recent tiny blip and ignores the last couple of years to see it. But I’m sure Bruce Hall is help Kevin Hassett mine the data as we speak.
Trump and the GOP cut credits for renewable energy manufacturing jobs and Trump’s random and wide sweeping tariffs on manufacturing inputs are NOT creating a resurgence of U.S. manufacturing jobs. Who coulda knew ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Have Tom Tiffany explain why Trump/WI GOP policies are not creating Wisconsin manufacturing jobs? Tom – you did vote to maintain Trump’s tariffs.
Meanwhile corporate media wonders if a restrictive immigration policy and the massive deportation of working age adults while the large Baby Boom generation ages out of the workforce will lead to a lower LFPR – ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-03/us-jobs-report-could-offer-clues-on-workforce-participation-drop
There is no large mass deportation program. A myth of fictional numbers and struggling hiring, the struggles in lfpr were showing up in 2023. The hiring part is mostly that the Boomers are gone from the labor force. We simp!y don’t need the labor and the coming layoffs will likely rebalancing effect, permanent consumption decline in us gdp. Its long overdue and the process began in 2014. Bubbling up global debt around dollars is over.
This is a little late, but perhaps worthwhile considering.
https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/09/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-at-the-trump-administrations-foundry-school-launch/