Back at the end of 2024, EJ Antoni was citing the Primerica Household Budget Index as indicator of consumer conditions.
Flash forward to today, from Primerica:
Little JD is on the TV telling his usual set of really dumb lies about inflation. All Biden’s fault – OK? Trump is doing all he can to lower inflation. Like raising taxes – driving up the cost of gasoline. Only a moron like Bruce Hall could listen to this BS without falling on the floor laughing.
The Primerica index looks like bad news for Republicans this year. Mid-term elections are always, to some degree, a referendum on the president, and the felon-in-chief appears to be doing his best to assure this year’s elections are mostly about him.
The felon’s nationwide approval rating is the lowest at this point in any mid-term year, especially when it comes to economic policy, but Senate elections happen in the states, not nationwide. Luckily, there’s a brand new tally of the felon’s approval rating, state by state:
https://www.newsweek.com/map-donald-trump-approval-rating-every-state-2-months-midterms-12390675
The felon is under water in the swing states of Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa and Texas (!).
As of today, 270-to-win’s “consensus” map for the Senate shows a 47/47 split with 6 states too close to call. However, if you count up the forecasts that go into the consensus, the result is 5 forecasts favoring Democrats, 3 tied and only 2 favoring Republicans.
https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/inside-elections-2026-senate-ratings
Similarly, Kalshi shows 52%/48% in favor of Republicans retaining control of the Senate, but if you check markets for individual states, Kalshi has Democrats winning 50 seats, Republicans 48. Of course, a 50/50 split would leave Republicans in control, which may explain Kalshi’s pricing.
Sixty days to go, with gasoline at $4.14 per gallon.
The Netherlands has been moving gold reserves out of the U.S. and Canada, back home and to the BoE, citing “geopolitical uncertainty” as the motive:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/03/world/europe/netherlands-gold-reserves-us.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgy51xlz39o
A total of 86 tons has been moved, in an effort to improved crisis preparedness. The DNB now holds a majority of its gold in Europe. This follow an earlier decision by France to swap 129 tons of gold held in NY for gold in Europe. The BBC doesn’t stretch much beyond the DNB’s own announcement to explain the move, but the NYT cites increased hostility on the part of the felon-in-chief toward Europe. Essentially, that’s saying the Dutch and French – NATO members, democracies and long-standing U.S. allies – are worried they’ll face asset seizure like Iran and Russia.
Let’s think about this. European gold is in North America because its presence in Europe was too risky; in a time when Europe was regularly at war, gold could become the spoils of war. Now, having physical gold at home and nearby is judged to reduce risk, compared to having it in North America. Six years ago, Europe had not had a war in three quarters of a century. Now, Europe has a war that won’t go away, but the Dutch and French central banks judges that taking gold back to Europe is better than leaving it here.
This Reuters report strongly suggests the felon-in-chief has no intention of ending the war on Iran anytime soon:
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-aides-fearing-midterm-rout-push-keep-iran-war-quiet-now-2026-09-02/
The idea is to let the war go quiet until after the November election, then escalate. That doesn’t fit well with this week’s splashy attacks on Iran. It could be that we’re seeing an internal debate over how to deal with Iran being fought in the press. Lossers leak, so maybe letting the war go quiet isn’t getting traction? Dunno.