According to AAA, regular gasoline is up 3.8% relative to a week ago, diesel up 4.5%.
Figure 1: Regular gasoline (blue, left scale), diesel (red, left scale), jet fuel-kerosene (green, left scale), all $/gal., and spot price Brent oil (black, right scale), $/bbl, all weekly average of daily prices. Source: EIA via FRED.
I also note that the rate at which crude is being drawn down from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been dropping. In the 4 weeks from June 7th, it was about 7.5 M barrels/week, in the next 5 weeks into early August it was about 4.2 M b/wk, and over the last 5 weeks it has been about 2.8 M b/week. At a rate of, say, 2.5 M b/wk, we have about 14 weeks before we hit the lower bound of the magic 250 – 300 M barrel range where drawing down more starts to become physically tougher and risks degradation of the facilities. My guess is the drawdown will decrease more as the driving season ends. For contrast, shipments through Hormuz averaged about 20 M barrels/day in 2025.
There’s also this limit on crude demand:
“US Utilization of Refinery Capacity is at 96.80%, compared to 97.80% last week and 94.90% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 89.76%.”
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_operable_crude_oil_distillation_capacity
The highest use rate at least in recent years is 98.0% in the final week of August.
I can get regular gasoline for $3.80 this Monday afternoon. I am thinking it will be cheaper by Wednesday, so I am holding out. Diesel I couldn’t guess with the refineries mess. The orange creature’s popularity with illiterate semi-drivers seems to be dropping pretty quickly. It’s tough for semi-truck drivers always being the dumb one in the room and therefor voting for the candidate who hurts them the most. Apparently the sledgehammer of diesel prices slamming the side of their cranium finally may cause them to lose their MAGA hats in the truckstop trash can. Wonders never cease
So Trump claims he has made a deal with the brutal dictator and Putin ally in Belarus for critical potash/potassium needed for fertilizer. The worlds largest producer of potash is right next door in Canada but Trump prefers dictators over democracies. Whether this is a real deal or more Trump fiction like his Greenland deal, it would be months before it would provide any relief for US farmers.
Was Mr. Trump telling the truth?
https://thehill.com/policy/international/6102469-trump-lukashenko-potash-deal-clash/
“Even if we wanted to supply [potash] to other, Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes — everything is contracted,” Lukashenko said in remarks published by his office on Monday.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/6102469-trump-lukashenko-potash-deal-clash/
Wait, Trump assured us that we need nothing, nothing, nothing from Canada. Canada, Belarus and Russia are the only volume producers of potash.
It will be interesting to see the election results in Iowa and Kansas.
Welcome to California!!!
Avgas = $7.58
Jet A = $7.50
That interview with Mamdani and Trump is amazing. Mamdani is the Trump Whisperer who has the uncanny ability to turn the raging bucking bronco into a docile little
pony. I’ve never seen anything like it. Trump says: “I want him to be a great mayor, and he’s certainly got potential and great potential.”
Mamdani seems to have the talent to be one of the most influential and successful politicians of this generation.
my guess is trump wants a return to nyc, and mamdami is promising him access to the city. probably false promises. but trump still dreams of taking over nyc.
Well, I am completely sober at the moment. and unless i am “tossing a few back” not normally this reflective. But Mr Buffett’s thoughts on his doctor as a child made me wistful on some things. My Dad was born in 1927. At that time it was not uncommon for babies to be born in a home (as it was with my Dad) and not in a hospital. Mortality rates were higher. Doctors had different “objectives” then, possibly less of a monetary fashion. I was born some 46 years later (when my Dad was 46. My Dad’s age was a curse in some way, a blessing in others. When your Dad is “old” (he would later be 59 when I hit age 13) he has the advantage of seeing a lot of life gone by at that point and it becomes a “fountain of knowledge” you can possibly draw from (if he takes the time to give you a couples mumbles from behind the newspaper). He died, doesn’t seem possible, some 14 years ago now. Wish I could still AUDIBLY hear that voice. Here no more. But the voice rings loud and clear in my mind, usually right after I do something stupid. I went to China, my father thought it was a huge mistake, but never said so within my earshot. He just let me go. People in China respect age. It’s one of the grander and tellingly wise aspects of their culture. When an old person talks, do yourself a PERSONAL FAVOR. Listen.
https://berkshirehathaway.com/news/nov1025.pdf
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2026/09/16/explainer-a-diesel-export-ban-is-an-idea-whose-time-has-not-come/
The latest hair brain idea from Republicans is to ban the exports of diesel fuel. Why this MAGA moronic idea is not good economics.
There is some sense in the explanation the oil industry is giving as to why we should not take away their absurd profiting from Trumps idiotic war – but it only stretches so far. You cannot cancel market forces even if there may be counterforces that limits the expected effects.
Yes the ability to transport diesel fuel is making export by ship more profitable than distribution in US by long haul trucking. If export by ship was banned, the shut down for maintenance might be a smart move – but that is still better than running full speed until it breaks down. They would certainly start selling at lower prices down near the refineries – rather than take a loss by actually shutting down refineries. So truckers on I-10 would be able to fill up at lower prices.
An export ban is a brute force tool for idiots. It would bring down prices, but much less than they think, and with some unintended consequences. There are much more sophisticated and effective tools to manipulate market forces – but that would require competent government.
Kevin Hassett claimed he bought hamburger meat for $2 less a pound than his store charged 2 weeks. Hey Kevin – was your store charging $9 a pound back then? Or is your real name Bruce Hall?
“Hey, Kev! I have some hamburger meat that’s a couple days past the expiration date… can let you have it for $2 off!”
Let him have the meat for free when it has that grayish color, then see if Kev wants to have a sleep out in the backyard. Leave all the outside lights off and have some large hefty bags handy for the astronomical twilight hours to take out the trash. Hell, call Hegseth’s house and see if you can make it a twofer. Workers and students yet to be murdered by ICE agents and innocent school children in Iran will thank you later.
He bought it from RFK jr, who picked it up at a roadside place.
Trumps mystery meat is supposed to be horse meat or two year old frozen meat deemed not fit for Chinese humans consumption. Get $2 of per pound and its a steal (at least someone is stealing from someone else).