Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Ten Year Treasurys and TIPS, Change since 2/28
From Treasury:
Figure 1: Change since 2/27/2026 in ten year Treasury constant maturity yields (blue), TIPS (red), both in %. Source: Treasury.
7 thoughts on “Ten Year Treasurys and TIPS, Change since 2/28”
Macroduck
The war-criminal-in-chief has said that gasoline prices will fall right after the midterms because Iran is only holding out until then. Meanwhile, according to the WSJ, his advisors are telling him that Iran is likely able to hold out until the end of his term, over two years away:
The December 2028 Brent future is trading around $77.50, well down from the on-the-run price of $107.50, but up about ten bucks from before the war. Oil markets had priced in an early end to the effects of the Hormuz blockade in June and July, then again in late August – didn’t work out. Futires prices may be unbiased, but that doesn’t mean they’re right.
Cage's Longlegs
“One day after”?? what a strange and AMAZING “coincidence”. Another orange man miracle brought to us by Bruce Hall and CoRev. The two Effing dumbest guys in the room.
Macroduck
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now averaging 6.76%. Mid-February, just before the war, 6.04%:
But T’s oil stock holdings have been doing gangbusters.
As Putin puts it, the special military operation is proceeding on schedule and according to the plan.
James
I keep studying the August 2026 jobs report – there was a massive reversal of the early summer trend of people leaving the workforce, instead 683,000 people entered the labor force. This influx caused the labor force participation rate to bounce back by 0.2 percentage points, rising from 61.4% in July to 61.6% in August. . While the headline numbers showed a surge of 683,000 people entering the labor force, a closer look at the data reveals that older workers (ages 55+) completely drove the month’s net employment gains, while the prime-age (25-55) remained entirely flat. Employment among workers ages 55 and older rose by 354,000 jobs.
Why? two main reasons – much of the 2.8% Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026 was swallowed up by soaring Medicare Part B premiums, which climbed to $202.90 per month, leaving fixed-income retirees net-negative against their bills. (Grandma Betty – I told you the Republicans are playing the old folks for fools.) and the other is the inflation chasm – the compounded effect of basic goods rising more than 31% since Trump took office (tariffs and terrible policies) created a breaking point. High costs for groceries, utilities, and home insurance forced retirees off the sidelines for some additional cash (Grandma Betty has the blood sugar and is doing poorly – but she has been thinking about trying to get a job as a Wal-Mart greeter.)
I’ve seen the August job report described as “smashing” – to me it is more S – slowing growth, H – higher interest rates, I – inflation and T – tariffs and terrible policies.
Ithaqua
The details show that over 2/3 of the gain in jobs was in food services and local government education – food services largely = cafeterias for schools and local government education = public schools, so a large back-to-school phenomenon. The reverse happens in June when people leave the workforce. The seasonal adjustment is supposed to mitigate that effect, but has been having problems ever since Covid.
David S
This dumpster fire smells terrible….
The Dow is showing some dead cat bounce today.
When do we start feeling the effects of our trade war with Canada? And what if Trump TACOs but Carney doesn’t play ball sensing that he has leverage and the longer he holds out the weaker he can make Trump.
The war-criminal-in-chief has said that gasoline prices will fall right after the midterms because Iran is only holding out until then. Meanwhile, according to the WSJ, his advisors are telling him that Iran is likely able to hold out until the end of his term, over two years away:
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/trump-advisers-warn-iran-conflict-may-last-through-end-of-his-term-wall-street-journal-reports
The December 2028 Brent future is trading around $77.50, well down from the on-the-run price of $107.50, but up about ten bucks from before the war. Oil markets had priced in an early end to the effects of the Hormuz blockade in June and July, then again in late August – didn’t work out. Futires prices may be unbiased, but that doesn’t mean they’re right.
“One day after”?? what a strange and AMAZING “coincidence”. Another orange man miracle brought to us by Bruce Hall and CoRev. The two Effing dumbest guys in the room.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now averaging 6.76%. Mid-February, just before the war, 6.04%:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US/#
But T’s oil stock holdings have been doing gangbusters.
As Putin puts it, the special military operation is proceeding on schedule and according to the plan.
I keep studying the August 2026 jobs report – there was a massive reversal of the early summer trend of people leaving the workforce, instead 683,000 people entered the labor force. This influx caused the labor force participation rate to bounce back by 0.2 percentage points, rising from 61.4% in July to 61.6% in August. . While the headline numbers showed a surge of 683,000 people entering the labor force, a closer look at the data reveals that older workers (ages 55+) completely drove the month’s net employment gains, while the prime-age (25-55) remained entirely flat. Employment among workers ages 55 and older rose by 354,000 jobs.
Why? two main reasons – much of the 2.8% Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026 was swallowed up by soaring Medicare Part B premiums, which climbed to $202.90 per month, leaving fixed-income retirees net-negative against their bills. (Grandma Betty – I told you the Republicans are playing the old folks for fools.) and the other is the inflation chasm – the compounded effect of basic goods rising more than 31% since Trump took office (tariffs and terrible policies) created a breaking point. High costs for groceries, utilities, and home insurance forced retirees off the sidelines for some additional cash (Grandma Betty has the blood sugar and is doing poorly – but she has been thinking about trying to get a job as a Wal-Mart greeter.)
I’ve seen the August job report described as “smashing” – to me it is more S – slowing growth, H – higher interest rates, I – inflation and T – tariffs and terrible policies.
The details show that over 2/3 of the gain in jobs was in food services and local government education – food services largely = cafeterias for schools and local government education = public schools, so a large back-to-school phenomenon. The reverse happens in June when people leave the workforce. The seasonal adjustment is supposed to mitigate that effect, but has been having problems ever since Covid.
This dumpster fire smells terrible….
The Dow is showing some dead cat bounce today.
When do we start feeling the effects of our trade war with Canada? And what if Trump TACOs but Carney doesn’t play ball sensing that he has leverage and the longer he holds out the weaker he can make Trump.