Real average hourly earnings:

Figure 1: Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers deflated by headline CPI (blue), Cleveland Fed nowcast (blue +), deflated by wage earner and clerical worker CPI (red), both in 2025$. Light green denotes US-Iran war. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.

Figure 2: CPI ex-shelter (blue), AIER Everday Price Index (red), Everyday Price Index predicted using first differences regression on core and and gas prices (red x), all in logs, 2025M01=0. Light green denotes US-Iran war. Source: BLS, AIER, and author’s calculations.