Usually an economic downturn is associated in a big increase in the spread between corporate and Treasury yields. This spiked pretty dramatically last week, but still has a long way to go.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Another roller coaster week
Glad I wasn’t trying to provide a play-by-play explanation of fed funds futures last week. But whatever was going on, we seemed to end up with the same conclusion with which the week began.
What is a liquidity event?
It was an exciting week in financial markets, including some dramatic central bank interventions in short-term money markets.
Interpreting fed funds futures
Despite what you may have read elsewhere, the probability of a fed funds rate cut has increased significantly over the last few weeks.
Weak employment reports
Wall Street took this as a weak jobs report, and it may be worse than people think.
July auto sales
This is not just another bad sales month.
Recession probability index rises to 26.2%
Definitely some things to be encouraged about by the latest GDP report, but the overall impression of economic weakness remains.
Ouch
No, this was not a good housing report.
San Diego index of leading indicators
Professor Alan Gin’s index may be of interest to those of us wondering where California’s economy is headed and to anyone who might want to construct a similar index for their own local economy.
Ethanol and food price volatility
If this is what we get in a good year, what will happen when we have a bad crop?