Wall Street took this as a weak jobs report, and it may be worse than people think.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
July auto sales
This is not just another bad sales month.
Recession probability index rises to 26.2%
Definitely some things to be encouraged about by the latest GDP report, but the overall impression of economic weakness remains.
Ouch
No, this was not a good housing report.
San Diego index of leading indicators
Professor Alan Gin’s index may be of interest to those of us wondering where California’s economy is headed and to anyone who might want to construct a similar index for their own local economy.
Ethanol and food price volatility
If this is what we get in a good year, what will happen when we have a bad crop?
Bernanke on the economic outlook
In testimony before the U.S. Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke continued his policy of greater openness and transparency for Federal Reserve policy, trying to lay out clearly what the Fed is most worried about.
Is OPEC relevant?
Are OPEC’s recent decisions responsible for the current price of oil? I’m not persuaded that they are, and here’s why.
More ideas on construction employment
Here are some of the thoughts from other analysts about why reported residential construction employment has not been plummeting.
Are your inflation expectations well-anchored?
Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s comments Tuesday about anchors for expected inflation left some analysts unsettled and others mystified. Bernanke was speaking to a group of academic researchers, and I believe his message was intended to provide some insights from practical policy-making to help improve the quality of academic research. So let me offer my interpretation of his message.