A quick follow-up on a point I made last week ([1],
[2]) about the factors behind recent interest rate moves.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Another energy bill
If it’s summer, it must be time for another energy bill, for which the Senate seems to have followed the strategy of Captain Renault to round up the usual suspects.
One nice thing when Congress keeps coming up with the same old ideas is that it allows us pundits to save energy by recycling our old comments on CAFE standards, ethanol mandates, and anti-gouging legislation.
Econoblog on interest rates
I was pleased to participate in the latest
Wall Street Journal Econoblog
with Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and co-founder of Moody’s Economy.com. Here’s a brief preview of what you can
find over at the WSJ.
Slipping a little
I wouldn’t read too much into the new starts, permits, and sentiment data, but I don’t take them as very encouraging.
Oil shale hits a freeze
Don’t count on running your Hummer on gasoline from oil shale just yet.
More on those rising interest rates
Rising rates look scary, but I still read it as good news.
Lessons from the yield curve
The dramatic upward move of long-term interest rates gives me an opportunity to look back on some of the predictions made on the basis of the inversion of the yield curve, and what might be in store next.
Reconciling the BED, CES, and birth/death employment data
There has been some discussion recently about discrepancies between different government estimates of the state of the labor market. Although a legitimate issue has been raised, there has also been a bit of misunderstanding.
Worries about gasoline supplies
Robert Rapier has some concerns about what could be in store for the U.S. this summer.
Post Mortem on the Cambridge Energy Research Associates Forecasts
In the summer of 2005, Cambridge Energy Research Associates received a lot of publicity for their optimistic assessments of near-term oil supplies. Two years later, it’s interesting to see how the details of those predictions have been borne out so far.