I have been suggesting that the best statistical approach, when confronted with conflicting signals such as the employment estimates from the BLS payroll survey, the separate BLS household survey, or the huge database from the private company Automatic Data Processing, is not to selectively throw some of the data out but rather to combine the different measures. Judging from some of the comments this suggestion has received both
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Employment still holding up (I think)
Another week of some wildly contradictory employment indicators.
December auto sales
Auto sales data released today look just great, as long as your name is Toyota.
Fiesta Bowl
Could be the greatest game in the history of college football, says Matt Zemek.
What will the Fed do next?
Probably nothing.
WIN buttons and Arthur Burns
I normally find myself agreeing with Dave Altig’s high-quality analysis over at Macroblog. But I’m afraid I have to leave Dave all alone in his latest quixotic mission to defend Arthur Burns (Chair of the Federal Reserve during the great inflationary episode from 1970 to 1978) and Gerald Ford’s old WIN buttons.
Encouraging numbers for new home sales
The Census Bureau today reported that new home sales were 3.4% higher in November relative to October, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Blood, oil, and ideology
Mark Thoma and
Two Angry
Bears
call attention to this post
from Christopher Hayes.
The term premium and reduced volatility
I earlier discussed the role that foreign government purchases of U.S. Treasury securities may have played in reducing long-term bond yields. A study by Fed researchers Glenn Rudebusch, Eric Swanson, and
Tao Wu that is soon to appear in
Monetary and Economic Studies explores an alternative explanation based on reduced volatility of underlying macroeconomic and financial fundamentals.
Glimmers of hope in new housing numbers
Last month’s surprisingly bad numbers for housing are now followed by some mixed good cheer from the Census Bureau and the National Association of Home Builders.