This week’s employment data do not show an economy in recession.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
November auto sales
November U.S. light vehicle sales were 2.8% higher than last year. Sounds good, until you take a closer look.
The yield curve and foreign purchases of U.S. debt
A few weeks ago I discussed some new research that suggests that the current negative spread between long-term and short-term yields may be a little less worrisome than earlier studies had led us to conclude, to the extent that the negative spread in part results from an unusually low term premium on U.S. bonds rather than an expectation of future declines in short-term yields. One factor that may be depressing that term premium is foreign holdings of U.S. securities.
Home sales down further
Data on October new home sales released yesterday by the Census Bureau suggest that I may be proved to have been wrong in thinking that new home sales had already hit bottom.
Housing: speculative bubble or fundamentals?
Caclulated Risk had some interesting observations this week about why forecasts for housing differ so widely across analysts.
Litvinenko
Martin Kelly is your source for news on the death of Alexander Litvinenko.
So who wants Russia’s oil and gas, anyway?
“The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them,” Lenin is said to have boasted.
Guest column from Shivaji Sondhi and Michael Cook
The moment seems to be opportune for some creative ideas about how to handle the situation in Iraq. Econbrowser is pleased today to publish a guest column from Princeton professors Shivaji Sondhi and Michael Cook, who direct the Project on Oil, Energy and the Middle East at the Princeton Institute of International and Regional Studies.
Housing stats look bad
Much worse numbers for housing than I was expecting were announced today by the Census Bureau.
Ain’t no use to sit and wonder why, Bob
After the learned New York critics savaged my beloved Twyla Tharp/Bob Dylan musical, I was pleased to see that Right Wing Bob knows the score.