Mixed signals this week leave Bernanke still needing to earn his pay.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Proposition 87 expenditures
Last week I discussed the way in which California’s Proposition 87, the Clean Alternative Energy Act, would raise revenues. Today I take a look at some of the implications of its proposed use of those funds.
Friday the thirteenth not so scary
The latest data on retail sales, tax receipts, and consumer sentiment all look consistent with the soft landing scenario.
Proposition 87 tax plan
Sixteen of the 191 pages that Californians are asked to read in order to vote intelligently in the upcoming election are devoted to discussion of Proposition 87, the Clean Alternative Energy Act. This calls for $4 billion or more in new taxes and spending. In this post, I discuss only the tax side of this proposal, and hopefully will have an opportunity to take up the spending details in a sequel.
Following the U.S. elections
If you’re looking for an alternative to the talking heads and endless spinning, here are some quantitative tools for following the U.S. elections that I’ve found useful.
So now the Saudis did it
Some people remain intent on believing that falling oil prices are the result of a conspiracy to keep Republicans in power. No sooner had I addressed the theory that Goldman Sachs had somehow initiated the huge price swings currently underway than a new theory pops up to replace it.
And they all lived happily ever after
Can high-flying stocks be reconciled with an inverted yield curve? David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch, via Felix Salmon and Business Week thinks “it is highly doubtful that both asset classes can be getting the story right.” But here’s one scenario under which both markets in fact might be telling the same story.
Pending home sales up
The National Association of Realtors released favorable news today on pending home sales.
The great gasoline price conspiracy
Have you heard the latest explanation for how President Bush contrived to lower gasoline prices in time for the election?
Amaranth hedge fund losses
How in the world did hedge fund Amaranth Advisors manage to lose $6 billion in September on natural gas trading?