Some new studies suggest that the yield curve inversion might not be quite as ominous as some of us have been assuming.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Mortgage rates and new home sales
This is the third of three posts based on my new research paper titled Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales, in which I describe the delays between Fed policy actions and what happens in the housing market.
Using those employment numbers
What do you do when one line of the latest government statistical release says that U.S. employment grew by 92,000 jobs during October, while 4 paragraphs later the same report gives the number at 437,000?
Federal Reserve policy and mortgage rates
I’ve recently completed writing a research paper titled Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales. The paper develops some new measures of the delay between changes in Fed policy and the impact on the economy. In this, the second of three posts on the paper, I describe the paper’s findings about how the Federal Reserve affects mortgage lending rates.
Accuracy of futures prices as predictors of the fed funds rate
I’m just finishing writing a new research paper whose goal is to come up with a better measure and understanding of the lagged effect of monetary policy on the economy. One of my claims is that the public’s expectations of what the Fed is going to do next play a key role in that process. In this, the first of several posts based on that paper, I describe some of the properties I’ve found for fed funds futures prices as predictors of subsequent Fed policy changes.
Interpreting median house prices
“Home Prices Plunge by Most in 35 Years”,
declare the headlines. But those numbers don’t mean what you might think.
Third quarter growth slows to a crawl
As expected, GDP growth became even weaker in 2006:Q3.
More evidence that housing may be stabilizing
Data on new home sales and inventories released today from the Census Bureau continue to support the view that the market downturn may have reached its bottom.
Is peak oil irrelevant?
Does the market price of oil reflect a recognition that the resource is fundamentally limited?
Map showing projected outcomes of U.S. senate elections
Via Midas Oracle, a neat map from Computational Complexity showing the current Tradesports probabilities for U.S. Senate outcomes. Like the graphics I collected here, this is continually updated live.