World oil production stagnated between 2005 and 2007, which given rapid growth in demand from emerging economies sent oil prices shooting up. Some observers suggested that production might never rise much above the levels seen in 2005. Among those who raised this possibility, two of the more thoughtful have changed their mind. Euan Mearns last month summarized what he saw as three (or four) nails in the coffin of peak oil. And Stuart Staniford, an early editor and contributor for the Oil Drum, declared a few weeks ago that the data have spoken.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Economists supporting Janet Yellen
Econbrowser readers know that I feel that Janet Yellen would be an excellent choice for the next chair of the Federal Reserve. For those of you who feel the same way, I call your attention to an open letter of support from economists that you could sign.
If you are a professional economist who lives and/or works in the United States and you would like to join in signing this open letter, please send your name, title, and affiliation to YellenLetter@iwpr.org.
Syria and the world oil market
Coping with high oil prices
We’ve been seeing oil over $100 a barrel and gasoline above $3.40 a gallon for much of the last 3 years. Those prices would have shocked many Americans a few years ago, but have now become the new normal. What has changed and what hasn’t as a result?
Most influential economics blogs
According to Onanalytica Indexes, it looks like you’re reading one of the ten most influential economics blogs.
The geography of success
Weak U.S. economic growth continues to be discouraging. But it’s worth taking a look at a few places where things going well for America.
California economist says real US debt $70 trillion
Or so claims a recent headline. But that’s not what I actually said, as I try to clarify below.
Winding down Fannie and Freddie
From the Daily Herald:
Speaking Tuesday in Arizona, President Obama endorsed the bipartisan efforts of [Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) and Senator Mark Warner (D-VA)] to wind down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as a first step in making certain that the nation does not suffer again through a housing finance crisis.
“For too long, these companies were allowed to make big profits buying mortgages, knowing that if their bets went bad, taxpayers would be left holding the bag,” Obama said in Phoenix. “The good news is that there’s a bipartisan group of Senators working to end Fannie and Freddie as we know them. I support these kinds of efforts.”
Let me explain why I also endorse these recommendations.
More on the next Federal Reserve chair
The Financial Times has published some further discussion on who should be the next Fed Chairman.
Brad DeLong argues for Larry Summers, and
I make the case for Janet Yellen.
Econbrowser recession indicator index up to 30.5%
The BEA released today its comprehensive national account revisions, according to which real GDP grew at a 1.7% annual rate in 2013:Q2. Although this was above the 1.1% rate that many analysts were expecting, the new estimates also revise down the growth rates that were previously reported for 2012:Q4 and 2013:Q1, with the growth rate over these quarters now estimated to have been 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively, down from the 0.4% and 1.8% figures that had been reported last month.