Yesterday the BEA finally reported GDP numbers for the third quarter, a month later than originally scheduled owing to the earlier shut-down of federal operations. The U.S. economy is estimated to have grown at an annual rate of 2.8%. That’s below the historical average, but better than the previous three quarters.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Changing plans
Found this in my inbox this week:
UC has changed the menu of the health care plans
that will be offered in 2014. Most notably, the three currently available PPO
plans (Anthem Blue Cross PPO, Anthem Plus, and Anthem Lumenos) are being
discontinued. They are replaced by Blue Shield Health Savings Plan and UC
Care.
Why isn’t inflation lower?
With so much slack in the economy and so many Americans still looking for jobs, why hasn’t inflation been falling further? University of Texas Professor Olivier Coibion and Berkeley Professor Yuriy Gorodnichenko propose an answer in an interesting new research paper.
Estimates of the effects of the Fed’s large-scale asset purchases
I attended a conference this weekend on lessons from the financial crisis for monetary policy. Among many interesting presentations, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams provided updated estimates on the effectiveness of large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance.
An exit strategy for Republicans
Like many other Americans and observers around the world, I find the ongoing spectacle in Washington both perplexing and distressing. But having seen the President follow the advice of our mighty blog for choosing the next chair of the Federal Reserve, I feel emboldened now to recommend a course of action for the House Republicans.
On weights and coding errors: odd coincidence or dress rehearsal?
Today Econbrowser is pleased to host this guest contribution from Professor Angus Deaton of Princeton University describing some of his experience with political attacks on academic research.
Yellen it is
I applaud President Obama for choosing the best person to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. And I thank Governor Yellen for her willingness to serve the country.
Making money from the Eagle Ford Shale
Newly exploited tight oil formations account for more than 100% of the increase in U.S. field production of crude oil since 2005. But that doesn’t mean it’s easy to make money getting oil out of the ground this way.
Who’s afraid of the big bad taper?
Those of us who believed that the Fed’s program of large-scale asset purchases had only a modest effect on long-term interest rates seem to have some explaining to do.
Summers withdraws
Harvard Professor Larry Summers yesterday requested that his name be withdrawn from consideration for next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Let me outsource to a few others for comments.