With the stock market setting new 5-year highs, I was interested to take another look at some of the long-term fundamentals underlying equity values.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
GDP falling again
The BEA released today its estimate of 2012 fourth-quarter real GDP, which declined slightly from the third quarter. How scary is that?
Links for 2013-01-23
Quick links to a few items I found of interest.
A long-run perspective on the U.S. deficit and debt
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economist Daniel Thornton has a new paper looking at long-run factors in the U.S. deficit and debt. His graphs tell a familiar story, but one worth repeating.
Debt-ceiling economics and politics
Let me outsource this topic to some others who’ve said it better than I could.
The near-term U.S. fiscal situation
Here I briefly survey some recent developments.
Understanding risk aversion in financial markets
At the economics meetings here in San Diego this weekend, I learned about some very interesting new research on one of the core questions in finance and macroeconomics that had long puzzled me.
QE3 and beyond
Now that we’ve closed the books on 2012, I thought it might be useful to take a look at where monetary policy has led us over the last four years.
Investment and the business cycle
I fell a little behind on blogging with the holidays, so today I’ll outsource to Calculated Risk.
Future production from U.S. shale or tight oil
I attended the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco two weeks ago at which I heard a very interesting presentation by David Hughes of the Post Carbon Institute. He is more pessimistic about future production potential from U.S. shale gas and tight oil formations than some other analysts. Here I report some of the data on tight oil production that led to his conclusion.