Author Archives: James_Hamilton

When do recessions end?

Warren Buffett thinks the U.S. is still in a recession, declaring in a CNBC interview last week:

I think we’re in a recession until real per capita GDP gets back up to where it was before. That is not the way the National Bureau of Economic Research measures it. But I will tell you that to any– on any common-sense definition, the average American is below where he was before, or his family, in terms of real income, GDP.

I don’t presume to be able to tell Warren Buffett what investment strategies work best. But I can provide some clarity on how economists use the term “recession,” and hopefully shed some light on the issue that Buffett and others have raised.

Continue reading