Author Archives: James_Hamilton

Links for 2010-07-09

A new study
by Fed economists Neil Bhutta, Jane Dokko, and Hui Shan concludes that the median borrower does not strategically default until equity falls to -62 percent of their home’s value.

Karl Smith is not impressed by the USDA’s claims about the effects of a soda tax on childhood obesity.

Political Calculations compares the attractiveness to businesses of locating in California versus Texas.

Some analysts have claimed that basketball star LeBron James saved himself $12 million in taxes by choosing to play in Florida rather than New York, though Aaron Merchak, David Henderson, and
Frank Stephenson refine the calculation.

And some UCLA scientists found that brain scans can predict what you’re going to decide better than you can.

Bob Hall on financial frictions

Via Mark Thoma and Arnold Kling, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis published an interview with Stanford Professor Robert Hall. The interview is terrific not just because Bob is a very smart guy, but also because interviewer Douglas Clement did a great job choosing the right questions. The whole thing’s worth reading, but I wanted to focus today on Bob’s comments on the role of financial frictions in the crisis and policy options to address them.

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Links for 2010-06-23

Tim Duy thinks the fanfare about a new Chinese currency policy is overdone:

The PR overload suggests the Administration is desperately in need of a “win,” no matter how trivial….
While China appears willing to adjust the parity rate, changes are likely to be more window dressing than anything else. The industrial base shifted from the US to China over the past twenty years, a transition aided by the Clinton Administration’s commitment to a strong dollar, and it is not going to come rushing back for a few percentage points of currency value. The structural shift has happened, and it won’t reverse easily.

When Bill McBride says he expects house prices to decline, I pay attention:

When months-of-supply is below 6 months, house prices are typically rising– and above 6 months-of-supply, house prices are usually falling…. We are much closer to the price bottom now than in 2008, and I don’t expect that severe of a price decline. But I do expect house prices to fall in the 2nd half of 2010 and into 2011– probably another 5% to 10% for the major house price indexes (Case-Shiller and CoreLogic).

A federal judge overturned the moratorium on new deepwater offshore drilling:

“An invalid agency decision to suspend drilling of wells in depths of over 500 feet simply cannot justify the immeasurable effect on the plaintiffs, the local economy, the Gulf region, and the critical present-day aspect of the availability of domestic energy in this country,” [U.S. District Judge Martin] Feldman wrote….

The temporary injunction by [Judge] Feldman appears unlikely to bring a swift resumption of deepwater drilling: Oil companies say they’re reluctant to start new ventures as an uncertain appeals process unfolds.

Inflation or deflation?

For the last year and a half my assessment has been that the near-term pressures on the U.S. economy were deflationary, while long-term fundamentals involve significant inflation risks. It’s time for a look at the data that have come in over the last 6 months, and time to say that I still see things exactly the same way.

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