Two of my favorite economists, Bilkent University Professor Refet Gurkaynak and Johns Hopkins University Professor Jonathan Wright, have a nice new paper in which they survey macroeconomic theories of the term structure of interest rates. As an unusual digital supplement to their paper, they put together a movie in which you can watch the arbitrage glue that normally holds markets together start to fail as financial markets literally fell apart at the end of 2008.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Ever so slightly less contractionary
What is the significance of yesterday’s statement from the FOMC?
Current economic conditions
Last week’s new economics data were a mixed bag. But on balance I’d have to say I’m more discouraged than when the week began.
Lessons from the Gulf Spill: Do’s and Don’ts
We’re pleased to feature another post from Steven Kopits of Douglas-Westwood, this time on lessons to be learned from the BP oil disaster.
Options for monetary stimulus
The latest economic data have surely warranted a downward revision in the Federal Reserve’s assessment of near-term economic performance. It therefore might be a good time to review the steps the Fed could take if it wishes to provide further economic stimulus.
About that recovery you ordered
“We have met the enemy and he is us,” Pogo used to say. Well, we’ve also now met the recovery, and he is ugly.
More disappointing news
Just a quick note on a couple of new data releases today.
Update on the bumpy recovery
I was curious to take a look at how Mike Dueker’s Business Cycle Index and other measures assess the current situation.
China land prices
Tell me if you think this story sounds familiar.
Fighting deflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the seasonally adjusted consumer price index declined in June to the lowest level since November. When we start to talk about the level of the CPI rather than its rate of change, you know that deflation could once again become a key concern.