“We have met the enemy and he is us,” Pogo used to say. Well, we’ve also now met the recovery, and he is ugly.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
More disappointing news
Just a quick note on a couple of new data releases today.
Update on the bumpy recovery
I was curious to take a look at how Mike Dueker’s Business Cycle Index and other measures assess the current situation.
China land prices
Tell me if you think this story sounds familiar.
Fighting deflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the seasonally adjusted consumer price index declined in June to the lowest level since November. When we start to talk about the level of the CPI rather than its rate of change, you know that deflation could once again become a key concern.
Modest relief on energy costs
A reader requests that we update some of the charts we’ve used to track U.S. energy expenditures.
Who’s buying all that debt?
I’ve been taking a look at what happened to the demand for U.S. Treasury bills and bonds as a result of the financial crisis. Here’s a summary of some of the data that I found interesting.
Links for 2010-07-09
A new study
by Fed economists Neil Bhutta, Jane Dokko, and Hui Shan concludes that the median borrower does not strategically default until equity falls to -62 percent of their home’s value.
Karl Smith is not impressed by the USDA’s claims about the effects of a soda tax on childhood obesity.
Political Calculations compares the attractiveness to businesses of locating in California versus Texas.
Some analysts have claimed that basketball star LeBron James saved himself $12 million in taxes by choosing to play in Florida rather than New York, though Aaron Merchak, David Henderson, and
Frank Stephenson refine the calculation.
And some UCLA scientists found that brain scans can predict what you’re going to decide better than you can.
Bob Hall on financial frictions
Via Mark Thoma and Arnold Kling, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis published an interview with Stanford Professor Robert Hall. The interview is terrific not just because Bob is a very smart guy, but also because interviewer Douglas Clement did a great job choosing the right questions. The whole thing’s worth reading, but I wanted to focus today on Bob’s comments on the role of financial frictions in the crisis and policy options to address them.
No double dip
Although many people are concerned about the possibility of a second economic downturn, I continue to see an economy that is growing, albeit significantly more slowly than we would have wanted.