How you think we might get out of our current economic problems has something to do with how you think we got into them in the first place.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
John Taylor on the Federal Reserve
Stanford economics professor John Taylor has a new paper in which he takes aim at recent economic policy, and fires with both barrels, concluding that “government actions and interventions caused, prolonged, and worsened the financial crisis.”
Predicting the trough and a jobless recovery
Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments and formerly was an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Michael is also a member of the Blue Chip forecasting panel.
In early February 2008, Michael submitted a piece to Econbrowser that correctly predicted the onset of the current recession, using a model-based forecast.
We are pleased that that he is now presenting forecasts from the same Qual VAR model concerning the recession’s trough date and the magnitude of a jobless recovery to follow, subject to the disclaimer that the content is the responsibility of the author and does not represent official positions of Russell Investments
and does not constitute investment advice.
Comparing recessions
Last week was a tough one for the optimists.
The auto downturn is very serious
I was running out of vocabulary last month to describe just how bad October was for the domestic automakers. But whatever you want to say about October, November was significantly worse.
TIPS yields
Greg Mankiw notes some odd behavior this week in the values reported by the U.S. Treasury for the yields on constant-maturity Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
Podcast on the Federal Reserve
I did a long interview today with Tom Keene of Bloomberg Radio on the current recession and Federal Reserve policy. You can listen to it by clicking here.
It’s official
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research announced today that the eleventh U.S. postwar recession began in December of 2007.
So long, Tanta
Doris Dungey, who had been known to me only as the contributor Tanta to the Calculated Risk blog, has died from cancer at the age of 47.
The more the merrier
How many economic-advice-giving organizations does it take to run a White House?