Author Archives: James_Hamilton

The other shoe begins to drop

Bloomberg reports:

Chrysler LLC, awaiting a federal rescue as its cash dwindles, will shut all 30 of its plants for at least a month starting Dec. 19 as unsold cars and trucks pile up at showrooms.

Ford Motor Co. said it will idle most of its North American assembly plants for the first week of January, while General Motors Corp. said a new factory making engines for the Chevrolet Volt electric car is being delayed to conserve cash.

The cutbacks showed how far automakers are going to save money and prune output in a year in which industrywide U.S. sales are poised to fall to their lowest levels since 1991. GM and Chrysler say they may run out of operating funds in just weeks without emergency U.S. aid.

Predicting the trough and a jobless recovery

Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments and formerly was an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Michael is also a member of the Blue Chip forecasting panel.
In early February 2008, Michael submitted a piece to Econbrowser that correctly predicted the onset of the current recession, using a model-based forecast.
We are pleased that that he is now presenting forecasts from the same Qual VAR model concerning the recession’s trough date and the magnitude of a jobless recovery to follow, subject to the disclaimer that the content is the responsibility of the author and does not represent official positions of Russell Investments
and does not constitute investment advice.

Continue reading