The housing downturn and rising gasoline prices are each exerting a significant contractionary influence on U.S. GDP. There is also an interactive effect between the two.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Oil spike
Why did oil breach $138?
Is this a recession and do we care?
Could well be, and yes you should.
The oil shock of 2008
Time to reassess the potential for recent oil price increases to contribute to an economic downturn.
SNDE Interview
Bruce Mizrach prepared some very thoughtful questions for an interview at the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium in San Francisco two months ago. We discussed a broad range of topics, including my background, Markov-switching models, the Fed, oil prices, and why I blog. Below are links you can follow to see the answers to particular questions.
Anchors away
From the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee:
Commodity futures speculation
More on the possible contribution of index fund investment to recent commodity price moves.
House prices and inventory
More outstanding analysis from Calculated Risk.
Understanding crude oil prices
That’s the title of my latest research paper. Here’s the summary from the paper’s introduction.
Oil speculation
Several readers call our attention to testimony by Michael Masters, of
Masters Capital Management, before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, on the role that speculation has played in recent commodity price movements. Here is what I think Masters is missing.