The latest employment numbers suggest that the tide has turned.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Commodity prices and the Fed
If the Fed thinks that recent commodity price moves have nothing to do with their own actions, perhaps they should think again.
It’s not just housing any more
Not a good start to the week week for those holding on to hopes that the U.S. will avoid a recession.
Just how badly is the U.S. economy doing?
That’s the topic of a piece I wrote for today’s San Diego Union-Tribune.
Bernanke’s tightrope act
Some analysts are saying that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is walking a tightrope– if he does not drop interest rates quickly enough, the U.S. will be in recession, but if he goes too far, we’ll see a resurgence of inflation. I am increasingly persuaded that’s not an accurate description of the situation.
House prices falling and worries rising
Today we received updates on U.S. house prices from two different sources. The OFHEO national house price index recorded a 1.3% decline in the price of a typical U.S. home during the fourth quarter of 2007, while the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index registered a 5.7% decline during the last three months of 2007. Here in San Diego, the respective numbers showed a 2.6% decline according to OFHEO and 9.1% decline from Case-Shiller during the quarter. For the year as a whole, Case-Shiller calculates that home prices fell 9.8% nationally and 15% locally.
Did somebody say stagflation?
Five weeks ago I asked, Will inflation fears restrain the Fed?, and my answer was that they would not. Certainly inflation fears did not prevent the Fed from lowering its target for the fed funds rate by 125 basis points since I offered that assessment. But I believe that this week’s data will force the Fed to be more cautious about the magnitude and pace of subsequent rate cuts.
$100 a barrel
Crude oil reached a record high on Tuesday, and there’s an embarrassing oversupply of theories to explain why.
What you see is what you get
Another week to read what you like into the economic tea leaves.
Tracking home prices in San Diego
Earlier this week, I explained why real estate prices, rather than interest rates or credit workouts, are the critical determinant of how bad the foreclosure problem is going to become. Today I discuss some of the alternative measures of real estate prices that we might look at, illustrated using the latest numbers for my own community here in San Diego.