The Census Bureau announced yesterday that the seasonally adjusted nominal dollar value of retail and food services sales fell by 0.6% between January and February, the worst monthly performance since June’s -0.8% value.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Asking too much of monetary policy
I remember a Federal Reserve economist once recounting a conversation with his young daughter, who asked him, “What do you do at work, Daddy?” He answered, “I help make important decisions.” “What kind of decisions, Daddy?” “Oh, things like how much money the government needs to print.”
Has the recession started?
The latest employment numbers suggest that the tide has turned.
Commodity prices and the Fed
If the Fed thinks that recent commodity price moves have nothing to do with their own actions, perhaps they should think again.
It’s not just housing any more
Not a good start to the week week for those holding on to hopes that the U.S. will avoid a recession.
Just how badly is the U.S. economy doing?
That’s the topic of a piece I wrote for today’s San Diego Union-Tribune.
Bernanke’s tightrope act
Some analysts are saying that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is walking a tightrope– if he does not drop interest rates quickly enough, the U.S. will be in recession, but if he goes too far, we’ll see a resurgence of inflation. I am increasingly persuaded that’s not an accurate description of the situation.
House prices falling and worries rising
Today we received updates on U.S. house prices from two different sources. The OFHEO national house price index recorded a 1.3% decline in the price of a typical U.S. home during the fourth quarter of 2007, while the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index registered a 5.7% decline during the last three months of 2007. Here in San Diego, the respective numbers showed a 2.6% decline according to OFHEO and 9.1% decline from Case-Shiller during the quarter. For the year as a whole, Case-Shiller calculates that home prices fell 9.8% nationally and 15% locally.
Did somebody say stagflation?
Five weeks ago I asked, Will inflation fears restrain the Fed?, and my answer was that they would not. Certainly inflation fears did not prevent the Fed from lowering its target for the fed funds rate by 125 basis points since I offered that assessment. But I believe that this week’s data will force the Fed to be more cautious about the magnitude and pace of subsequent rate cuts.
$100 a barrel
Crude oil reached a record high on Tuesday, and there’s an embarrassing oversupply of theories to explain why.