As part of its ongoing efforts at helping the public understand exactly what its intentions might be, the Federal Reserve today released more detailed minutes of its October 30-31 meeting that included the Fed’s expectations for what comes next.
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
The challenge of depletion
Where’s that large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply when you really need it?
Trusting the birth/death model
Ray Stone of Stone & McCarthy Research Associates has some interesting observations on the quality of the payroll employment numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
New research on the causes of the housing boom and bust
What are the respective contributions of national and local factors to recent changes in house prices?
Oil, gold, the dollar, and inflation
Do the ongoing surge in gold and oil prices and slide in the dollar signal a resurgence of inflation?
Well then, would $100 a barrel worry you?
A week ago I reviewed the reasons why $90-a-barrel oil by itself would not be enough to cause an economic recession. As oil prices charged up to $96 on Friday, a reporter asked me at what price I’d change my mind.
Are the employment numbers as good as they sound?
This week’s GDP and employment numbers were a pleasant surprise. Should this cause the Fed to change its warning in Wednesday’s FOMC minutes that
the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term.
GDP up, recession probability down
Fret as we all might, the U.S. economy just keeps on growing.
The Salem witch trial of Elizabeth Jackson Howe
For Halloween I could perhaps write something about what’s spooking the Fed as they contemplate tomorrow’s fed funds rate decision. But I decided instead to write about the Salem witch trials.
Econoblogger at work
Cute pic from the Curious Capitalist.