What are the respective contributions of national and local factors to recent changes in house prices?
Author Archives: James_Hamilton
Oil, gold, the dollar, and inflation
Do the ongoing surge in gold and oil prices and slide in the dollar signal a resurgence of inflation?
Well then, would $100 a barrel worry you?
A week ago I reviewed the reasons why $90-a-barrel oil by itself would not be enough to cause an economic recession. As oil prices charged up to $96 on Friday, a reporter asked me at what price I’d change my mind.
Are the employment numbers as good as they sound?
This week’s GDP and employment numbers were a pleasant surprise. Should this cause the Fed to change its warning in Wednesday’s FOMC minutes that
the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term.
GDP up, recession probability down
Fret as we all might, the U.S. economy just keeps on growing.
The Salem witch trial of Elizabeth Jackson Howe
For Halloween I could perhaps write something about what’s spooking the Fed as they contemplate tomorrow’s fed funds rate decision. But I decided instead to write about the Salem witch trials.
Econoblogger at work
Cute pic from the Curious Capitalist.
$90 a barrel: Is it time to start worrying about the oil price shock of 2007?
Oil shocks in 1973, 1979, and 1990 were each followed by a recession. But we saw the price of oil climb from $20 a barrel in 2002 to $75 a year ago, and so far it has not resulted in a significant economic downturn. What’s different now, and can we count on it to continue?
Why is oil above $90?
The answer is pretty simple, really– demand keeps going up but supply doesn’t.
San Diego fires
Thanks to our many friends around the world who’ve asked if we’re ok. We are indeed, and, if you’re curious, here’s our story.