From MilitaryLand and ISW, accessed today:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Manufacturing over the Long Term
Reader Bruce Hall wishes for any discussion of the impact of trade policies include displays of the manufacturing sector’s progress, over the maximally long period. Here, without further ado, is what I could gather quickly.
Currency Misalignment Measured Assuming a Balanced Financial Account
The Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Blue Collar Dollar Institute have developed a measure of currency misalignment, reported in their latest Currency Misalignment Monitor (April issue).
How Not to Estimate Losses from Climatic Disasters
In re: Hurricane Maria, what do we know a bit over five years later?
Maury Obstfeld: “Trump’s plans for the Fed and the dollar are a one-way ticket back to the inflationary chaos of the 1970s.”
Maury Obstfeld at PS says it better than I ever did (along with the best graphic *ever*):
“Is the Boom-and-Bust Business Cycle Dead?”
That’ s leading question in the NYT a little while back (just getting to this now that I’ve finished grading).
Hi Ho, Hi Ho, It’s Off to FX War We Go!
I’ve only now gotten around to writing about this Trump policy proposal: “Trump trade advisers plot dollar devaluation” . I was befuddled by how they Trump brain trust was going to effectively force the weakening of the dollar: sterilized intervention, dropping interest rates in the US, or forcing foreign countries to re-peg their currencies at stronger values. They all seem to be problematic.
“You have to look pretty hard to find the “trade war” effect in the data”
That’s a quote from Bruce Hall, referring to the period 2011 onward. For his reference, I present key indicators of the manufacturing sector during the Trump trade war.
Manufacturing Malaise?
Manufacturing employment is up relative to 3 years ago. Why so much dissatisfaction?