Di Martino Booth points to the McKelvey rule, which uses a 0.3 ppt threshold instead of the Sahm 0.5 ppt threshold. This indicator does seem to signal a recession as shown in the figure below.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Legislative Fiscal Bureau (Aug 2017): “August 2017 Special Session Assembly Bill 1: Foxconn/Fiserv Legislation”
Here’s the entire Legislative Fiscal Bureau document on Foxconn (since links to original site do not work in my previous post “Wisconsin FoxConned by Walker et al.”:
Russia Slows, Struggles to Supply the War Effort
From BOFIT:
Brad Setser: “Power and Financial Interdependence”
Wisconsin FoxConned by Walker et al.
On the day in which President Biden announced the repurposing of the site that was to be Foxconn’s, I reprint this 2017 assessment.
May 2024 Short Term Energy Outlook: WTI, gasoline prices
From EIA (May 7, 2024):
The Wisconsin Macroeconomy: Latest Available Readings
Some data, as President Biden visits (CNN):
Tracking Wisconsin Manufacturing: Did Tariffs Help?
In a recent Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article (via Pulitzer) Rick Barrett notes “Manufacturing is coming home” to Wisconsin. Does the data support this?
“Der Dollar bleibt König”
From FAZ:
Der Euro und der Renminbi können in ihrer internationalen Bedeutung nicht mit dem Dollar wetteifern. Die amerikanische Währung bleibt an den Finanzmärkten der Maßstab.
Some Textbooks
Public Service Announcement, for those who wish to talk intelligently about macro, instead of ranting. Here’s what I use (in response to Steven Kopits asking “What the he** do you teach your students, Menzie”). The following are free use, or older editions that have been superseded by newer.