January NFP employment growth surprises on the upside, at +275 vs. +198 thousands consensus. With combined downward revisions in the prior two months totaling 168 thousand, the level of employment is just about consistent with implied consensus. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
February 2024 Real-Time Sahm Rule Indicator
Still below threshold: Continue reading
Biden-Trump: Some Economic Comparisons
GDP, employment, manufacturing, debt, unemployment, etc.
LP Derived IRFs for Disasters on GDP
The Sensitivity of Economic Sentiment to News Sentiment, By Partisan Affiliation
How sensitive are economic sentiments as measured by the University of Michigan survey, depending upon party affiliation? Apparently, over the period of the Biden administration, it’s higher for Democrat and lean-Democrat.
Year-on-Year Change in Federal Debt to GDP or Potential GDP
Reader Bruce Hall notes the extreme jump in debt-to-GDP in 2020 was attributable in part to the public health economic lockdowns, to wit:
But the economic shutdowns certainly affected the equation’s denominator in 2020.
I note that using the counterfactual potential GDP as estimated by CBO does not change the picture substantively – I add the red line to the blue line shown in the previous post.
Business Cycle Indicators Plus Monthly GDP. And Heavy Truck Sales
Monthly GDP declines 7.1 ppts m/m annualized Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP.
Some Pictures of Federal Debt
Senatorial candidate Hovde presents this picture.
“Why dollar dominance is here to stay”
OMFIF Live broadcast, Wed 06 Mar 2024, 15:00 – 16:00 Eastern Time. Steven Kamin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Mark Sobel, OMFIF’s US chair, discuss their paper.
Some Cost Implications of Elevated Frequency of Extreme Events Associated with Global Climate Change
That’s climatologist/macroeconomist/epidemiologist Steven Kopits snarks that I’m worrying about having to wear shorts in Madison on Sunday, when it hit 70 degrees. Just to clarify, global climate change has real implications.