CBO projection and SPF mean forecast diverge, by nearly a percentage point in 2024.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Historical Data on Temperatures in Wisconsin
A reader comments on my remarks regarding 70 degrees in Madison, yesterday:
It’s these type of sensationalist posts that don’t help educate or support/facilitate the discussion regarding climate change. It only muddies the discussion as a single day’s weather means close to nothing as it relates to climate change. A denier can easily reference the historical data which is clear that a 70 degree day doesn’t come close to even cracking the top-20 warmest March days in Madison Wisconsin’s history.
Wisconsin: AFP Notes Costs Are Up, Ignores Wages and Salaries Are Up
From the Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin:
In the last four years, Biden’s reckless spending has driven the national debt past $34 trillion – more than $258,000 of debt per household – and Americans’ purchasing power has declined as families have seen the prices of goods and services rise much faster than their income. Prices are now 17.9% higher and the average household is paying over $11,400 more each year just to maintain the same quality of life as when Biden took office.
70 degrees F in Madison: “The Horror”
That’s climatologist/macroeconomist/epidemiologist Steven Kopits remarking on 70 degrees F high in Madison today. For context, some historical data from here:
70 degrees F Tomorrow in Madison
So, my impression that things are warming up is not just me…
Guest Contribution: “Occupations and Responses to Social Security Retirement Policy”
Today we present a guest post written by Lindsay Jacobs, Assistant Professor at the Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.
Guest Contribution: “A Monthly Series of U.S. Household Income Data”
Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria, co-founders of the data science and economic consulting firm Motio Research. This post offers a concise introduction to a new monthly series of U.S. household income data officially launched by Motio Research in December 2023.
Business Cycle Indicators, end-February 2024
Personal spending comes in at consensus, personal income above. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP.
GDP, Est’d GDO, GDP+
With the second release for GDP, we have the following picture of aggregate output:
Real Wage Growth, thru January 2024
From BLS today: