Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The UK in Recession? Expected or Unexpected?
With two quarters of GDP decline in the UK according to the current vintage of data, it’s reasonable to ask if the UK is in recession. ONS discusses the limitations of using the two-quarter rule of thumb here. Figure 2 of this study illustrates the dangers of relying upon the two-quarter rule when the GDP data are subject to revision. See additional discussion using the “technical” definition, AP, CNN, Bloomberg. It’s also of interest to consider whether statistical methods relying on financial indicators would have predicted a recession, variously defined.
CFNAI for January, WEI for mid-February
Economic growth slightly below trend.
Fed funds vs. Spreads in Recession Prediction
Reader Bruce Hall notes the correlation between Fed funds rate peaks and recessions, as a counterpoint to my use of spread inversions.
Other Metrics for Evaluating Recession Onset and the “Technical Recession” of 2022H1
Or, Why We Don’t Use GDP Alone to Determine Business Cycle Dates. First, consider our various measures of output.
Not “Exogenous versus Endogenous Business Cycles: How the Pandemic differed from an Ordinary Recession.”
Reader Steven Kopits (who doesn’t know what a confidence interval is formally defined as, and thought no more than 300-400 people died in Hurricane Maria) urges me to write a paper with the above title.
Recessions Defined and (Maybe) Predicted
Since most of my lecture notes have migrated behind a gate (software called Canvas, used on many campuses), I thought I would share some teaching material that some Econbrowser readers might find of interest.
Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce: “Optimism is falling” in Wisconsin
From the Badger Institute:
The Dollar’s Role as an International Currency
Some recent items: papers by Chinn, Frankel and Ito and Kamin and Sobel; talk by Mark Copelovitch on Tuesday.