The euro has been depreciating against the dollar over the past few weeks. The implications of this development for the US depend critically on (1) the extent of the depreciation, (2) the duration, and (3) the source of the depreciation. (See Jim’s post for other links.)
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
NOAA: Warmest April Global Temperature on Record
That’s the title from today’s top entry on the NOAA website. And if that’s not interesting enough, the subtitle reads: “Also Warmest January-April”
Pictures at a Catastrophe
(With apologies to Mussorgsky.) Here’s the first:
Figure 1: MODIS/Terra image/Sky Truth, May 10, 2010.
Consumption and Imports: A Snapshot
The March trade release came in close to consensus (although suggesting higher 2010Q1 growth [0]). Comparing the advance release figures on real goods imports against the Jan-Mar figures from the trade release doesn’t suggest a big revision (about 7.5 billion Ch.05$ on SAAR). I thought it would be interesting to see if there were any indications that American consumers were weaning themselves off of foreign consumer goods, using the 2010Q1 Advance release figures.
The Rescue Package Graphically Depicted
Quantifying Macro Spillovers
In a post regarding the transmission of financial turmoil from Europe to the US last week, I noted my research with Kristin Forbes on the determinants of the strength of financial market linkages. A more recent and extensive survey of the macroeconomic — as opposed to financial — linkages is provided by a recent released working paper coauthored by Ashoka Mody and Alina Carare at the IMF.
More on the Deepwater Horizon
From Peter Coy and Stanley Reed in Bloomberg:
Should the heaviest portion of the spill come ashore, it may cause damage rivaling the 1989 wreck of the Exxon Valdez in Alaska’s Prince William Sound, despoiling the breeding grounds of species in the fragile coastal-buffer zone that provides hurricane protection.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment: The Tide Has Turned (For Now)
From the April 2010 employment situation release: Nonfarm payroll employment trends strongly upward; previous months’ figures are revised upward; not seasonally adjusted figures move upward as well; the upward movement is not driven by government employment; the experimental household based quasi-payroll employment series moves upward even more strongly; and aggregate hours is now 1% higher than the level at 2009M06.
Euro Area to US Contagion?
I was wondering why the Reuters website wasn’t loading on my computer. Then I got a phone call from a reporter asking about the US stock market meltdown in response to Greece…which struck me as an odd linkage. It still strikes me as an odd linkage.
“Reminbising China’s Assets”
From a paper written by Yin-Wong Cheung (UCSC), Guonan Ma (BIS), and Robert McCauley (BIS):
…Recent policies adopted by the Chinese authorities
can be interpreted as allowing the rest of the world to denominate debt in renminbi. But if trading
partners consider that the renminbi is subject to big jump risk, then prospects for its
internationalisation are weak. …