Joseph Lawler at the Spectator distills the Austrian perspective on the sources of current unemployment.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Prospects for Global Imbalances: A View from the IMF
Following up on recent posts ([1], [2], [3], [4], [5] [6]) Here’s another take on the prospects for resolving global imbalances, from Olivier Blanchard and Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti, “Global Imbalances: In Midstream?” Staff Position Note 09/29 (Dec. 22, 2009):
IV.B. Lower Global Imbalances in the Future
What will happen in the future depends on how long the factors we just listed will be in play [oil price decline, asset price busts, increase in home bias, the hit to durable consumption and investment goods demand].
Below is reproduced the IMF World Economic Outlook‘s October 2009 forecast for current account balances.
Levels versus Growth Rates and the Impact of ARRA
Since there is often confusion in popular discussions of the net effect of the stimulus on GDP, I thought it would be useful to present Deutsche Bank’s views on the impact on both the level and growth rates of GDP. (Here we are talking about seasonally adjusted at annual rates [SAAR] growth rates and levels; cautionary notes here: [1], [2].)
A Crisis Reading List
Teaching Macro, after the Great Recession
Or, How to adapt the intermediate macro syllabus to an altered world
This semester is the first time I’ve taught intermediate macroeconomics link in over two years. The last time I taught this course in the Spring of 2007, the key topics were inflation, the possibility of stagflation, and the possibility of containing the ongoing housing slowdown.
How High Do Income Elasticities Have to Be to Explain the Recent Import Drop-off?
There’s been a debate over the cause of the trade flow drop-off, with varying explanations being offered. Broadly speaking, the explanations are (1) trade credit and credit crunch more broadly, (2) enhanced vertical specialization implying higher income elasticities, and (3) compositional effects (the trade dependent sectors were those most highly affected in the latest recession). Without necessarily offering definitive evidence one way or the other, I wanted to quantify the extent to which income elasticities had to be higher in order to rationalize the movements observed in US data.
Employment Bounceback?
From Peter Hooper, Torsten Slok, Christine Dobridge, “Robust growth needed to avoid jobless recovery,” Deutsche Bank Global Economic Perspectives (Dec. 9) [not online]:
Exchange Rate Policies
My colleague Charles Engel has a new paper circulated by the Dallas Fed entitled “Exchange Rate Policies”, which brings theory to bear on the topic. From the introduction:
The Employment Situation in Graphs
…and an initial read on monthly GDP.
