…or putting some bounds on the magnitudes of effects.
knzn at Economics and… had an interesting post the other day on “The Indirect Effects of Export Demand”, which seems particularly germane to the current situation. After all, net export demand is one of the few bright spots in the US economy.
Reader CoRev, in commenting on this post, advises me to look at the actual data for October (instead of the CBO estimate) before declaring a trend deterioration in the budget balance. Well, the data are out.
Several people have asked why economists blog. Here are a couple random thoughts centered on individual characteristics.
The nation borrowed from the rest-of-the-world when interest rates were low. But interest rates can adjust. So can exchange rates. What to think of our creditors re-appraisal of the “right” effective interest rate to lend to us?
The interesting aspects of the survey of forecasts conducted by the Wall Street Journal (data here) are not in the means (or medians), but in the tails.
CBO releases CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2007 Update [pdf].
Last week’s trade release induced some wide-ranging thoughts, that spurred more questions than answers. In an experimental post, I’ll pose some questions that I hope readers will help me answer.
The credit crunch seems to be worsening, rather than lessening, and the conundrum seems to have disappeared.
Just to put the 2007Q3 3.9% SAAR increase in GDP in perspective, here is how output stacks up during this expansion as compared to the last.