Most of the NYT’s recent coverage of the subprime mess focused on Greenspan and the Federal Reserve System.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Make that Four Reasons Why Recession May be Averted
Sudeep Reddy provides five reasonsWhy Economists Are Betting A Recession Won’t Happen. These reasons are ably summarized in the WSJ Real Time Economics Blog post Five Reasons Recession May Be Averted:
An Exercise in Sheer Conjecture
China, PPP, and Misalignment Estimates
Do We Know a Trend is a Trend?
As the U.S. economy goes into a downturn, we are going to be reminded that extrapolating trends is a hazardous enterprise. For instance, linear extrapolation of tax receipts (expressed as a share of GDP) is probably something that one should be wary of doing. And yet, as shown in some comments on previous posts (see here and here), there seems to be too much belief in what ocular regressions can tell one.
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom (II)
Last week, I wrote a post examining what the measures of central tendency for the dollar’s trajectory were, based upon some standard forecasts. This week, I want to examine more closely whether we should anticipate more depreciation, in real terms, by way of discussing alternative measures of the dollar’s value.
The Administration Finds Fiscal Restraint
From the White House OMB on Saturday:
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom?
Some analysts think so.
Has Industrial Production Peaked?
And what would it mean if it had?
The White House and Other Economic Forecasts
On Thursday, the White House released its new forecasts. How does it compare against other forecasts?
The Euro as the World’s Reserve Currency: A Progress Report
Back in 2005, Jeff Frankel and I presented a series of projections about the dollar’s role as the world’s dominant reserve currency. We concluded:
…Whether the euro might in the future rival or surpass the dollar as the world’s leading international reserve currency appears to depend on two things: (1) do enough other EU members join euroland so that it becomes larger than the US economy, and (2) does US macroeconomic policy eventually undermine confidence in the value of the dollar, in the form of inflation and depreciation.