Some delayed reflections on exchange rates, trade prices, and the messages from the August data.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Is Bush an Economic Conservative? Does He Analyze?
Greenspan says no, on both counts.
Saving Glut Redux
Bernanke recaps his interpretation of the explanation for global imbalances. Is it any more convincing than the first time?
Perspective on the Surge and US Losses
I thought it would behoove us to actually inspect the data and look at the trends (as opposed to listening to Administration officials) associated with operations in the Iraqi theater.
The Decoupling Scenario: Pre-Assessment
The U.S. economy appears to be slowing. Predictions of continued growth probably rely on assumptions the rest of the world continues to grow. How reasonable is this view?
Just how bad is the labor market?
Nonfarm payroll employment growth is 1.3% (12 month log difference). Civilian employment — adjusted to conform to the establishment payroll series — is 1.0%. These are the numbers for August 2007? Almost. Payroll employment growth was actually 1.2%. Those figures are for February 2001, the month immediately preceding the last NBER-defined recession.
Dueling Recession Probability Estimates
Macroeconomic Advisers says the probability of recession is less than 50%.
OECD downgrades growth
The OECD has just released What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment (5th September 2007), which reduces US 2007 y/y growth by 0.2 percentage points relative to what was forecasted five months ago. Yet, in a testament to how fast-moving the situation is, that reduction in growth estimates might have been too conservative (consider today’s pending house sales numbers).
AWOL on safety regulation and the protectionist surge
Many observers have long worried about protectionist pressures even as the economy operates at full-employment. What, I wonder, will occur when the economy slows appreciably and unemployment increases, against a backdrop where the safety of imports is already at issue? Those of us who believe that a open and free trading regime is preferable to a restrictd trading regime should be concerned.
One perspective on approaching the current situation
Since Jim laid out some of the proposals for addressing the mortgage problem, I thought I’d put in my two cents worth.