The IMF has just released several chapters of its semi-annual World Economic Outlook. One chapter is entitled “Managing Large Capital Inflows”.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
What’s a “Strong Dollar”?
I used to wonder about the use of this term a lot, at least in the context of government pronouncements. Here’s my answer. First, the use of the term in context. From Bloomberg:
Weak Dollar Boosts Growth Without Fueling Inflation (Update1)By Matthew Benjamin and Vivien Lou Chen
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whose signature appears on every new dollar bill, may find the weak currency with his name on it helps the U.S. economy more than the strong one he publicly endorses.
Bush Era Consumer and Occupational Safety Budgets and Trade Anxiety
I noted in a previous post the decline in resources devoted to monitoring the safety of products in previous years, contributing to perceived gaps in consumer safety, and hence resistance to international trade.
The Stock Market and Real GDP
With the recent surge in stock prices, some analysts believe that the probability of recession is receding.
Foreign Exchange Market Transactions and Reserves: Recent Statistics
There’s been a cornucopia of forex market information released in the past week, which I’m only now getting to. First, the BIS has released the preliminary results from its Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity, conducted in April of this year. The results are interesting, insofar as they confirm trends evident in the previous survey in 2004. Second, the IMF released its most recent tabulation of foreign exchange reserve holdings (COFER).
Perspective on Selective Fiscal Restraint and the Bush Administration
As the President and the Congress head to a showdown over SCHIP, it might be useful to see how, over the 2000-2005 period, the Federal government’s fiscal exposure evolved.
What would be the implications of stagflation for the dollar?
The dollar is declining, with no apparent support. That’s because the recessionary factors seem to be dominating. But a reporter’s question about what factors might support the dollar prompted me to think about other influences that might work in a direction opposite the forces alluded to in the conventional wisdom.
If Iraq becomes West Germany
Some people have argued that the occupation of Iraq could evolve into a West Germany type situation. CBO has assessed the costs of this eventuality.
The President Prognosticates (on the Economy)
From the LA Times:
Divining the Dollar
The dollar declines in response to the drop in the target Fed Funds rate. What next?