…but mostly due to increasing oil prices.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
A Tipping Point for the Dollar?
In a post over a year ago, I observed that the relative stability of the dollar would come to an end as a confluence of events occurred. Those would be the end to rises in the US interest rates, and the continued increases in policy rates abroad, especially in the euro area and the UK, against a backdrop of a massive current account deficit that requires large and continuous infusions of saving from the rest of the world (and indeed consumes most of the world’s excess saving).
Maybe the Euro Isn’t the Competition
The yield curve dis-inverts, sort of
Long term yields have jumped up, as Jim noted. The spread between the 10 year and 3 month interest rate has moved positive.
The 2006 Net International Investment Position
The BEA released the end-2006 net international investment position (NIIP) today.
Inflation: Local or Global?
What does the empirical literature say about the sources of inflation movements in an era of globalization?
Thinking about import prices, the dollar, and inflation
Some delayed reflections on the May import/export price release, and how to interpret the data in light of the empirics of exchange rate pass through.
Rejoice! The 2006 current account to GDP ratio has been revised up by 0.3 percentage points
There’s a temptation to view the upward revision to the current account balance, and the components thereof, as yet more evidence that the US external situation is in better shape than commonly perceived.
Keeping China’s Yuan in Perspective
The Treasury released its report International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies yesterday. As expected, the Treasury declined to declare China a currency manipulator. On the same day, four senators submitted legislation to tie Treasury’s hands in terms of the actions it can take against countries with “misaligned” currencies.
Musings on Inflation Worries
The selloff in the stock market last week was attributed by some to inflation worries — namely that persistent inflation means a reduction in the Fed Funds rate is less likely than the market had until recently believed.