The April trade release surprised on the upside. Here are a few other insights, not all of which are unalloyed positives.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Financial Openness around the World
What do our indicators tell us?
Diverging Trends in Recent Employment Measures
Little noted is the fact that, while May’s payroll employment release surprised on the upside, the household series were providing conflicting indications.
Messages from the GDP Preliminary Release
GDP growth was revised down, as expected, in today’s NIPA preliminary GDP release. At 0.6% q/q growth SAAR was below Bloomberg consensus of 0.8%. But even more revealing is the pattern in recent revisions; in addition, trade adjustment looks a bit further off.
More on Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Adjustment
Time for an update on estimated income and price elasticities of US trade flows. These issues are important to those of us who believe that the US remains vulnerable to shifts in the rest-of-the-world’s willingness to finance the current account deficit. If you think it’s just jolly fine and likely for the US to keep on borrowing at around 6.5 percent of GDP for the indefinite future, skip this post.
One (Non-Isolated) Example of the Current State of Affairs in Government Administration
From GovExec.com:
Special counsel finds GSA chief violated Hatch Act
By Daniel Pulliam dpulliam@govexec.com May 23, 2007
A report from the federal agency that investigates allegations of illegal political activity in the government has concluded that Lurita Doan, the head of the General Services Administration, violated the Hatch Act.
Gasoline prices surge: Thinking about Some Causes
Nominal gasoline prices are at an all time high. However, in real terms, April prices were not the highest. May prices might be, depending on how you calculate it (hard to figure it out since May’s CPI is not yet out). From the Washington Post:
Follow up on Housing Permits and Housing Starts: Do Permits “Predict”
In an earlier post on investment, I made the assertion that housing permits led housing starts. This assertion was contested by a number of observers (GWG, rana, spencer, CalculatedRisk). I’ve decided to revisit this question, since clearly, the best characterization of the stylized facts takes on heightened importance given the yesterday’s release, as discussed by Bloomberg:
Tales from the WSJ Survey of Forecasts
The results of the Wall Street Journal’s recent survey of forecasts were discussed in an article with the curious title “The Economy Is Clawing Back, but Not Much”.