The White House released its midterm forecast on Tuesday. Some thoughts on forecasts around turning points.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Some Puzzling Effects of Productivity on the Real Exchange Rate
What should be the effect of productivity increases on the real exchange rate?
Are the Democrats Truly More Protectionist?
In the wake of the midterm elections, and the failure to renew Vietnamese PNTR, there has been a lot of talk about how more protectionist Democratic lawmakers are. See WaPo, The Economist (pre-election) [sub.req.], WSJ [sub.req.] and here. Greg Mankiw also steps in the fray.
Can Gravity Be Defied?
“Dark Matter”, like all stories about free lunches, still excites lots of people’s imagination, as evidenced by the reaction to my post on the subject a week ago. Here is one picture that should further temper the excitement.
The Expansion Compared
There was a lot of mystification why the electorate was so concerned about the economy, when aggregate measures of economic performance were signalling positive.
Current Account Imbalances, Again
At the 7th annual IMF Research Conference, Olivier Blanchard discussed in the keynote lecture whether it makes sense to worry about the U.S. current acount deficit.
RIP, Dark Matter As Cure-All
Two recent publications should help put to rest the conjecture that there are vast pools of U.S. wealth lying overseas, ready to save the day.
How Big Is the Housing Overhang?
There’s a lot of evidence of a rising inventory of unsold housing, and a big decline in housing sales. Can a more quantitative, stock-based figure be obtained?
The October Employment Report: Dunking the Data in Some Cold Water
There has been much hullaballoo about how tight the labor market is given the upward revisions in the August and September figures, on top of the preliminary benchmark revision reported last month.
Estimating U.S.-China Trade Elasticities: Some Very Preliminary Results
Do we have any idea what the CNY appreciation against the dollar will accomplish?