This figure updates the data presented in an earlier post on Iraq trends, replacing the projection with actual figures for October.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Skepticism about the Business Fixed Investment Handoff
One view of how GDP growth can be sustained in the wake of negative residential investment growth is to assert that business fixed investment picks up the slack. If this happens, then the adjustment of construction employment need not be too abrupt.
The U.S. Macroeconomy: Facing the Future with (at least) One Hand Tied
[This is an English version of an article that appeared the Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore on the 24th September.]
Today, the U.S. economy stands poised between persistent inflation and slowdown. Even as many measures in the production side of the economy signal continued strength in the economy, forward looking indicators such as housing prices, residential investment, and the yield curve point to substantially weaker growth going forward.
The Fiscal Exposure of the Nation
In present value terms, where were we in 2000? Where are we now?
Monday, December 18, 2006
At the rate of casualties incurred in October-to-date, cumulative U.S. fatalities in the Iraqi theater of operations will exceed 3000 on this date.
Tales from the CBO (and the White House)
Investigating the numbers
How Strong Is (Was) the Dollar?
An alternative view on the dollar’s strength and trend over time.
Trends in Iraq
Casualties, force levels and expenditures
Perspective on the Employment Release and Preliminary Benchmark Revision
There was a lot of discussion surrounding the BLS’s benchmark revision. Dave Altig at Macroblog has an excellent review, while Ritholz at Big Picture is perturbed about the magnitude of the data revision. Without claiming to have greater insights into why the revision is so large, I do think a look at the context would be useful.
Twin deficits redux
On the current account deficit, “We have met the enemy, and he is us”.