New aggregate indicators on the macroeconomy are out. How do they compare against a summary measure of the macro series the NBER BCDC focus on?
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Drilling Our Way to …
Prospects for Nonresidential Investment: Tales from Residential Investment and Corporate Profits
Nonresidential investment has been increasing until 2008Q1, at which time it essentially stalled (-0.2 ppts. annualized in log terms). On the basis of past historical correlations, what’s in store?
A Closer Look at the Impact of Higher Gasoline Prices
There’s been a lot of discussion recently about the effects of high gasoline prices on the quantity demanded of gasoline, as well driving behavior (Jim Hamilton, Jim Hamilton, CR, CR, Paul Krugman). David Austin, whose work I have cited often on this blog, gave a fascinating presentation, entitled “Effects of Gasoline Prices on Driving Behavior and Vehicle Choice” at the recent Society of Government Economists conference in Washington, DC a couple of weeks ago. In it, he tackles some of these issues. (Note, these are his own personal views and do not necessarily represent the views of any specific organization.)
Recession versus Negative Output Gap
Over the past few days, I’ve been trying to identify appropriate measures of the output gap (and trying to relate that to exchange rate changes). As I’ve done so, I’ve come to realize that (1) it’s a difficult thing to do, and (2) interesting stories come out of different measures.
Trends in Key Recession Indicators
Since December 2007 is a commonly identified turning point [1], [2], I thought it would be of interest (given Jim’s take on whether it matters if we’re in a recession) to see what the indicators that the NBER BCDC focus on — payroll employment, industrial production, real personal income less transfers, real manufacturing and trade sales, and to a lesser extent monthly real GDP — are doing. They’re declining…
Oil Prices in Other Currencies
Some of the explanations for the dollar jump rely upon the perceived weakness in the dollar’s value (and hence, by extension, Fed policy). Does this make sense?
More on De-Globalization: Oil, Transport Costs and Inflation
Following up on this post from October 2006, when oil was only $58.88 (WTI,daily average) a barrel, consider this excerpt from today’s Thomas Net:
The impact of rising transportation costs, driven significantly by high oil prices, is already being seen in capital-intensive manufacturing that carry a high ratio of freight costs to the final sale price. But a new report has determined that higher energy prices are affecting transport costs at such an unprecedented rate that “the cost of moving goods, not the cost of tariffs, is the largest barrier to global trade today.”
Important Footnotes in Dynamic Scoring
The White House today cited the 2006 Treasury Report in its “Pro Growth Tax Policy” information sheet. From the website:
GDP on the Eve of Recession: Then and (Maybe) Now
There’s been relief in many circles that GDP in 2008Q1 was revised upward. I too take this as good news, to the extent that the economy seems to be growing more rapidly — and output more balanced — than previously thought. Figure 1 depicts the q/q SAAR growth rate, using the May 2008 preliminary release.