From Saturday’s New York Times, the case is made that the G-7’s dream scenario of global rebalancing, with more rapid growth in Europe pulling up demand for US goods, is finally underway:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Last Throes of PoMo Macro?
Are Democrats Truly More Protectionist? (Part II)
There was some disagreement with my assertion that Democrats were — effectively — not as protectionist as many have argued. Here are some more thoughts on the matter, as the Administration prepares the case for countervailing duties on Chinese imports [1].
Employment in March: Comparisons across Measures, Time, and Levels vs. Growth
The March employment figures have almost universally been hailed as evidence of a strong labor market, given how the announced value exceeded expectations, and the fact that previous months values were revised upward (WSJ1, WSJ2, Reuters, Bloomberg; contrarian opinion at Big Picture, Capital Spectator). (Jim Hamilton has already discussed how likely these figures are to be revised, in light of other complementary data.) Without disagreeing, I think it behooves us to consider other ways of looking at the data.
Exchange rate depreciation and expenditure switching in the United States
The IMF’s April 2007 World Economic Outlook has been released — or at least part of it. One chapter, entitled Exchange Rates and the adjustment of External Imbalances [pdf], deals with a subject close to my heart.
The Subprime collapse and the housing market: a bubble or “looting”
Jim Hamilton’s recent post “Bubble, bubble, toil, and trouble” elicited a tremendous amount of commentary — and incredulity — amongst the readers.
Nonresidential investment spending: The message in the March 29 release
GDP growth was revised up in today’s NIPA release. But there are some interesting aspects in the details.
Maybe we can’t count on exorbitant privilege/dark matter/manna from heaven…
The new conventional wisdom is that the return foreigners obtain on U.S. assets is less than the return U.S. residents obtain on foreign assets. And that this means that the U.S. can build up a bigger foreign debt than traditional analyses; I’ve been skeptical [1], [2]. Now, we have more reason to ask how robust is the finding of a durable earnings differential in favor of U.S. investors?
Some Implications of “Staying the Course”
The numbers are flying around — so much so that one cannot be sure of where force levels will be in a few months. However, based upon press reports and data provided by the Brookings Institution’s Iraq Index, we can make some educated guesses.
Three Four Pictures from the Investment Sector
Several observers have taken solace from the jump in housing starts; however others have noted the implications of the decline in housing permit applications are not so rosy.