EuroCoin in October indicates quarterly growth rate of -0.67 (q/q). The Q3 flash estimate for Euro Area GDP was -0.1%.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Household Employment Series Turns Down
Does this mean we should be expecting the recession, in next month’s or month after’s data? Maybe, maybe not.
Weekly Macro Indicators, through 10/28
Year-on-Year growth is accelerating modestly, according to the WEI.
Risk and Uncertainty, Market and Geopolitical
One way to visualize:
News
Interest rates down:
Real Wage Growth – Mean and Median
With the labor market release, we have a new read on real wage growth.
The October Employment Report and Business Cycle Indicators at November’s Start [updated]
October NFP employment came in at 150K (below consensus 180K), private NFP at 99K (vs 158K consensus). Here’s the picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, along with S&PGMI’s (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP:
Mr. Johnson’s Modest* Conjecture for Saving Social Security
By happenstance, I was covering the challenges facing the Social Security and Medicare trust funds in my course on Wednesday. On that same day, Mr. Michael Johnson became the new Speaker of the House. In the past, he has provided an implied solution. From Newsweek:
“We are in a soft recession right now”
That is Stephen Moore, on June 27, 2022. He further notes: “Moore pointed to the GDP data on Monday, noting that the “first six months of the year have been negative for growth.” Here are the data around that time.
NIPA-Based Alternative Measures of Economic Welfare
From BEA, median equivalized personal income, and net domestic product.