In defending the Kudlow alternative math calculation of net job gains in first 30 months of the Trump and Biden administrations, Mr. Bruce Hall writes:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Some Dubious Coincident Indicators of Recession, Again: VMT, gasoline supplied, EPU vs Heavy Truck Sates and Sahm Rule
Reader Steven Kopits, who as recently as a couple weeks ago argued strenuously that a recession occurred in 2022H1, writes of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index graph shown in this post:
Almost Half a Century of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
It seems a lot less uncertain since 2021M01.
Scavino (or Kudlow) Strike Again: Disinformation Edition
I saw this screenshot of a post from Dan Scavino, former Deputy Chief of Staff for Communications in the Trump White House, and former caddie for a party at the Trump National Golf Club Westchester (at that time, Briar Hall Country Club), and thought “those numbers don’t look right”.
Urals vs. Brent, pre- and post-Cap
The $60 price cap on Russian crude oil was effective 5 December 2022. Here’s a figure of Urals vs. Brent over the past 5 years.
The Debt-Service Ratio and Estimated Recession Probability
Or, why I still think a recession is possible at 2024H1.
Guest Contribution: “Naomi Klein’s Brand”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
FT-Booth September Survey
The recession’s start is further delayed as forecasted growth continues. FT article and survey results: q4/q4 growth at 2% [1.3%, 2.5% 90%ile range].
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-September
Industrial production suprised on the upside on Friday, 0.4% vs. 0.1% Bloomberg consensus. Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus monthly GDP.
Conference: “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”
Sept 21-22, at the University of Padua, organized by International Institute of Forecasters, University of Padua, American University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and IMF.