In this post from Monday, I recounted the US results from Chinn-Ferrara (2024), using debt-service ratio data up to end-2022. The BIS has now released debt-service ratio data up to Q2. I use a regression of DSR growth rate on changes in AAA and 3 month Treasury yields, and 2 lags of DSR growth to forecast 2023Q3 DSR. I then obtain the following estimate of recession probability through 2024M09.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
“The Ukrainian War Economy”
Yuriy Gorodnichenko speaks at the Markus Academy (hosted at Princeton University), Friday, February 2, 12:30 PM ET. Yuriy Gorodnichenko is the inaugural Quantedge Presidential Chair in Economics at UC Berkeley.
Evaluating 25 Years of ECB (Policy)
On 16 January 2024, the second ECB@25 Symposium was hosted by Professor Mary Pieterse-Bloem (Erasmus School of Economics Professor of Financial Markets) at our Pavilion.
Sentiment, Confidence, News: January 2024
The Conference Board’s confidence index is up, following U.Michigan’s survey of sentiment.
Is Wisconsin in Recession?
WisGOP thinks so.
“The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity across Countries”: The US
From a new paper, NBER WP No. 32084, by myself and Laurent Ferrara, out today.
Guest Contribution: “Helping Ukraine is a National Security No-brainer”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate on January 25th..
Nowcasts and Alternative Output Measures
GDPNow and NY Fed nowcasts as of today:
Business Cycle Indicators at January’s End
On the back of yesterday’s GDP release (discussed by Jim), real personal consumption continues to rise, beating consensus (+0.5% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), while nominal personal income hits consensus at +0.3%. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
Re-Post: “Distributional Data from the National Income and Product Accounts”
Reader JohnH is surprised that BEA reports distributional NIPA data, despite having commented on a blogpost on the subject two and a half years ago (he commented three times!)
In an unmentioned recent development, BEA is actually providing data on income distribution, something which should be of interest to macro students.
Given that some folks do not remember what they’ve read and commented on, I re-post, with link to updated information.